Grocery sales are slowing and Liquor had its fair share

  • The easing of lockdown restrictions to Level 3 and the re-opening of Liquor has negatively impacted Grocery growth over the last few weeks
  • Growth over the total lockdown period has slowed from 7% to 6%. IRI expects this trend will continue as consumers become increasingly cash strapped
  • For the first time since the start of lockdown, we’re seeing declines in the latest week for Flour, Ice Cream, Spices and Seasonings, Condiments and Snacks, indicating consumers are eating out of home again. Google searches for recipes and baking are also on the decline
  • Soap and Sanitizers continue to be at the top of consumer shopping lists and Vitamins have gained importance, as consumers opt for preventative remedies during the winter season
  • Hair Care declines at -7% in the last week with the re-opening of hair salons. This is down from a +22% growth four weeks ago
  • After an initial two week Liquor stock-up, Liquor sales have slowed recently with the share of spend dropping below a year ago levels (5% in the latest week vs 6% average over June last year). Brandy, Gin and Wine were clear winners in the first two week stock-up
  • Despite numerous reports of steep inflation across Grocery, formal retail inflation over April and May 2020 was 5.8% (observed across 320 top selling products). Cooking Oil, Hot Porridge, Condiments, Pet Food and Canned Veg recorded the highest inflation of observed categories
  • Traditional sales forecasting models need to be adapted and updated regularly to accurately take into account the COVID-19 effect and changing consumption patterns. IRI has developed a machine learning based algorithm that re-evaluates the assessment of each factor and enables more accurate estimations of probable changes in the COVID-19 wear-out effect on sales patterns, as well as the potential effect of a second wave

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