We start with a full-year trading update from Shoprite, released earlier this week. Unsurprisingly, the Group is on the up and up (and up some more), which for a business of its size remains nothing short of extraordinary. But let’s look at the deets:

• Headline earnings per share are expected to increase around 20% versus last year (!) HEPS strips out extraordinary items that are not part of a company’s everyday activities, so achieving this sort of growth in profitability in its core business is remarkable.
• Turnover: Was healthy for all segments with the overall Group achieving +8.9% growth, Supermarkets RSA up +9.5%, Supermarkets Non-RSA +6.4% (in rands).
• Disposals: Include the furniture business (going to Pepkor) announced earlier this year, but new to the list are the disposal of operations in Malawi (currently with five stores) and Ghana (seven stores + one warehouse). This move follows Shoprite’s exits from other African countries, including Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda, Madagascar, and, most recently, the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2023
• Store openings: 194 stores across its banners were opened over the year, as well as 81 LiquorShops, 60 Petshop Science, 8 Checkers Outdoor, 10 UNIQ clothing and 1 Little Me

Comment: We’re not quite sure what to say… wow, amazing, bussin? (It’s a word, look it up). While not the official numbers (coming out early September), these give a pretty solid indication of what to expect. Pieter and his gang must be smiling.

For Woolworths, releasing results at the same time as Shoprite must, at the very least, cause a few eye rolls, like when Linda went up for her 10th award at our final Matric prizegiving. Starting with the positives, South African operations showed strong growth, with Food outperforming the market thanks to growth in volume and shopper visits (with turnover +9.2%). Fashion, Beauty, and Home also recovered well (+5.1%), helped along with +22.8% growth in FBH online sales. However, the Group was let down by Country Road Group (CRG) in Aus, where a weak performance was attributed to low footfall, discounting, high import costs, and a R917m impairment charge against some of its underperforming brands. As a result, Woolies expects HEPS to be down by as much as 27%. In other Woolies news, The Dapper One has been named among the top three brands most likely to be recommended by South Africans, according to insights agency KLA. Drawing from 12 months of data, the research asked current customers of each brand, ,em>“Which brands would you recommend to a friend or colleague?” Over 85% of Woolies shoppers said they would recommend Woolworths Food (88.1% of respondents), Woolworths Clothing (86.7%) or Woolworths Home (85.2%) to their mates, with the top two spots taken by Rand Merchant Bank and Samsung.

Comment: Back to the trading update – First David Jones, now CRG… it seems Woolies just can’t win Down Under. The hope is that things will normalise once CRG has completed its restructuring after separating from DJ. We live in hope.

Our third trading update this week takes us to the aisles and shelves of Pick n Pay. Just like Boxer last week, PnP’s update also covers the 17 weeks ended 29 June 2025, showing a +4.3% increase in Group turnover (+3.8% in comparable stores), with star segments Boxer (+12.1%), Clothing (+17.3%) and Online (+33%) compensating for the weaker supermarkets portion of the business. Company-owned supers are showing improvement though (+4% in like-for-like sales), and while we’re still a long way off from the growth seen in the other divisions, they are faring better than franchise stores (-1.4%), which is unusual. Does this mean that franchisees are buying more elsewhere and not from Pick n Pay directly? Or perhaps that they are facing stiff sales pressure despite their deep knowledge of the communities they serve? In other Pick n Pay news, Gareth Ackerman, son of the legendary Raymond and Pick n Pay Chairman for the last 15 years, made his farewell speech at the Group AGM this week, where he spoke of FY2025 as a “defining year”, and congratulated Sean Summers on his leadership and progress made since his return to the business. Mr Ackerman then handed over to his successor, James Formby, a former CEO of Rand Merchant Bank and Pick n Pay board member since 2022. Gareth will remain on the Board and continue to serve on various Group committees.

Comment: The end of yet another era at Pick n Pay, but the green shoots are there. Keep on keeping on, big guy.

We start our wrap-up of international retailer news in the UK, where Waitrose reports what it is calling a ‘sober summer’ due to sales of no- and low-alcohol drinks growing +32%. The category showing the greatest growth is low and no spirits, up +85%, followed by beer (+50%), cider (+28%) and wine (+21%). “The ‘sober curious’ movement is growing, showing a trend towards well-being-focused drinking that doesn't compromise on flavour or social connection,” explains Sarah Holland, Waitrose Low and No Buyer. Next, Marks & Spencer has announced that it will be closing its nearly 100-year-old flagship department store in Wolverhampton, after never quite recovering post-COVID. In 2022, M&S announced plans to move away from its traditional department store formats by closing 67 out of its 247 stores and opening 100 food halls by April next year. M&S is working with the city of Wolverhampton to find a suitable location for a new food store. And finally, we jump across the pond to New York, where the New York Association of Grocery Stores (NYAGS), a coalition representing NYC’s grocery landscape, is “vehemently opposing” mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani's proposal to open government-owned and operated grocery stores. “This initiative threatens the livelihoods of countless mom-and-pop grocery stores and jeopardises the vital food distribution network that New Yorkers rely upon daily,” NYAGS says. Mamdami has proposed five such stores, one for each NY borough, which would bring lower-priced groceries to communities there. The plan has been described by some naysayers as a “Soviet style disaster-in-waiting”, but this model would not be a first for the States where such stores already exist in several rural areas, and plans are to open two in Atlanta later this year.

Shareholders at BAT must be smiling. Thanks to an increase in demand for smokeless nicotine products and a strong US performance, the business is expecting revenues at the upper end of its forecasts when official results come out. Improved sales in combustibles (cigarettes and tobacco products) and the launch of Velo Plus nicotine pouches contributed to the US rebound. Nicotine pouches, in case you didn’t know, are a smoke-free alternative to smoking, whereby small rectangular pouches of nicotine, flavouring and other ingredients are held between the user’s lip and gum until the contents are released into the mouth. The empty pouch is then disposed of. BAT’s ‘New Categories’ portfolio (i.e. e-cigarette and nicotine pouches) now accounts for over 18% of total group revenue. BAT has gained 1.4 million new consumers thanks to its smokeless brands in the latest period, contributing to a rise in US revenue and profit for the first time since 2022.

There are many beautiful stories and initiatives which come out of Mandela Day every year, but this one attracted our attention, not just because of its worthy cause, but also the ‘fun’ factor in it. Sasko Siyasizana is a ‘Play Better’ initiative launched back in 2023, intending to provide safe playgrounds for junior primary children. The improved playgrounds have so far benefited over one million children, and Sasko plans to reach five million kids by 2030. This year, Sasko has reached the significant milestone of building its 1,000th playground (at a total cost of R10m), and to celebrate the occasion, the PepsiCo brand baked a special edition 1,000-slice bread loaf. The bread was used to make sandwiches for the children at Ikaneng Combined School in Diepkloof, Soweto, as well as a local NGO that supports a learner feeding scheme.

At the end of last week, the SARB announced another interest rate cut of -25bps, supported by contained inflation and lower growth outlooks. Since Nov 2024, the prime interest rate has gone from 11.75% to 10.5% as inflation has dropped.
Looking ahead, the SARB is considering a scenario of targeting 3% inflation, changing the target to the low end of the current 3-6% range, instead of the current +4.5% ‘mid-point’. The SARB and National Treasury have been engaging on this for years, as the current target range is generally considered too wide, and the +4.5% mid-point too high. In the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statement, the SARB pointed out: “With actual inflation close to 3%, we wanted to highlight the opportunity to achieve permanently lower inflation at minimal cost”. No word yet from National Treasury, which has had its hands full with Budgets 1.0, 2.0 and then 3.0

Comment: A +3% inflation target could lead to further interest rate cuts (based on the SARB’s Quarterly Projection Model), which would be good news for debt-laden households. In addition, it could attract more investment, driving the economic growth that South Africa desperately needs. For a roundup of the latest economic indicators, our monthly report is out to subscribers tomorrow. The free snapshot is available here.