THIS ISSUE: 14 Jan - 20 Jan
Another week of slow news as our great retailers take stock and assess the impact of the recent holiday season on the old bottom line. But a shot in the arm for informal retail, below, and for our economy generally as the World Bank revises its outlook for South Africa’s GDP. And an exciting new trends report from Deloitte. Enjoy the read.
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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Shoprite A good year
Having launched the LiquorShop online in November, Shoprite has found it to be a very tidy little earner indeed. Don’t take it from us though: “Our average basket value on our LiquorShop online is plus minus eight times more than it is in our bricks and mortar retail stores,” says Ops Manager Jean Marais. This growth has obviously been pushed along by the pandemic: during these last challenging two years, online retail in South Africa has doubled growth to almost R30bn; by the end of the current financial year Shoprite believes that it will be a R40bn industry or around 4% of all retail in South Africa. In other Shoprite news, the business has begun the new year as it will no doubt continue, responding to some of the natural disasters that have already wracked poor communities across the Beloved Country. After last week’s flash flooding in the Eastern Cape, for example, the business deployed a Shoprite Mobile Soup Kitchen, which will feed people in the affected area for as long as necessary.
Comment: A remarkable business, with a profound sense of what ordinary South Africans need.
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Informal Retail Build Back Bolder
South Africa’s iconic and resilient informal trade, which employs as many as 2.7 million South Africans and feeds millions more every day, was somewhat neglected in the fallout from July’s civil unrest, which affected it more deeply than other sectors of our industry. Around 50,000 traders were impacted by the rioting, with an average decline in monthly income of around R6,500, as shopper numbers dropped, and stores were closed to avoid loss and damages. To some of these businesses, at least, a modest lifeline has been extended: In partnership with the South African Informal Traders Alliance (Saita), the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) has offered 180 traders grants of R25,000 each to retore their businesses to earlier levels and build some sustainability and resilience into their models. The two organisations are supporting the Government’s ‘Build Better Campaign’, which is aimed at creating a million new jobs by 2023.
Comment: Question is, what can the rest of us do to support this critical sector by building our own businesses?
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In Brief Nothing to see here….
Those Woolies Viennas – the smoked and red ones you’ve been battling to get since mid-December? Re the smoked – nothing more sinister than a minor foul-up with a supplier who changed its production, apparently, although availability might be tight at the odd store from time to time. But the red have been totally discontinued due to poor sales, which is probably a service to humanity when you think about it. Pick n Pay has been drawn tangentially into the Clover strike, with protesters storming into its Obs store last Wednesday and snatching Clover products off the shelves. In better PnP news, The Big Blue has extended its service offering to punters with a three-step system that allows you to renew your driver’s licence in its stores. Next up, unabridged birth certificates? Finally – more on the outlook of Game following last week’s Massmart trading update. If sales for December continue the -8% YOY decline across the rest of the period, sales at Game will have declined by -22% over the past two years, from R19.8bn in 2019 to around R15.3bn for 2021.
Comment: Tough times for the Men in Black, with COVID, civil unrest and a host of other complications disrupting its apparently well-laid turnaround plans.
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International Retailers An app for shopping, you say?
Bringing healthier decisions to the People of Walmart this week are Sifter SP Inc., developers of the proprietary Nutrition as a Service (NaaS?) platform. Together with the giant retailer it has launched the Shop-By-Diet app, which enables punters to establish whether items they are interested in purchasing meet their health goals and nutritional requirements. Over in the UK, SPAR has announced that all wines sold by the Jolly Green retailer will now be vegan, with no gelatine, egg whites or other animal products used as fining agents (sniffs knowledgeably). One of the wines is our very own SPAR Regional Selection South African Reserve Chenin Blanc – a smooth confection with peach and ripe pear flavours, from the Breedekloof region. Also in the UK, posh retailers Tesco and Marks & Spencer have announced solid sales for the holiday period, as the explosion of the Omicron variant left punters eating good food and quaffing fine wine at home.
Comment: The pandemic has changed shopper behaviour forever, in ways with which we only beginning to reckon.
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Pet Care Good boy!
Among the many things we did to alleviate the tedium of lockdown (knitting, sourdough, DuoLingo…) was to acquire extra pets, to the extent that the pet care market is now worth somewhere north of R7.1bn in South Africa and is growing at the steady clip of around +2.5% per annum. The biggest driver of growth were pet snacks and treats, and pet healthcare, while dog food remains the biggest category. Interestingly, the pet owners of the country are diversifying from large dogs kept for substantially security reasons to smaller “heart dogs”, which have the added benefit of requiring less space as people opt more and more for apartment living. And in line with our tough economic climate, people are mixing cheaper dry food with wet food to make ends meet while keeping Romeo fed and healthy. Another growth area is calming products, like Rescue Remedy and CBD-based medications, as people return to their workplaces and separation anxiety kicks in.
Comment: These products may also be suitable for dogs…
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Marketing Rise of the (adding) Machines
Deloitte has released its Global Marketing Trends report, and as a public service we are here to translate some of its more high-flown language for you, our valued readers: Purpose becomes a beacon for growth: A shining light if you will. A city on a hill. Marketing needs to be authentically inclusive: Indeed. Down with fake marketing and its faux inclusivity! Companies are building the intelligent creative engine: But not too intelligent we hope, the advertising people are not going to like this. Also, see data experiences, below. Data experiences must also be human-first: Well, we should hope so. Otherwise, we’re in Terminator territory. The hybrid experience is elevating: Although sometimes we prefer good old Durban Poison Customer service is being supercharged with AI: Vroom, vroom!
Comment: For the full report, have a look over here. Watch out for the intelligent robots, though!
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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The Economy You can bank on it
Good news from the World Bank, which from its marbled halls in Washington, DC, has pronounced that the dear old South African economy is likely to rebound to its pre-pandemic levels. This according to that venerable institution’s Global Economic Prospects Report January 2022, released last week. Apparently, our GDP growth is likely to come through at a full percentage point above their gloomier June predictions, at a hearty 4.6% in 2021, lifted thither by a robust recovery in the mining, manufacturing, and services sectors. And – here’s a nice little kicker – the Bank has pointed to our improved control over COVID-19 as a driver of improved performance in service sectors like tourism. “Private consumption and investment are projected to firm somewhat, recovering from last year’s virus restrictions and social unrest,” says the report. “However, persistent large-scale unemployment, high inequality and structural impediments to growth will continue to weigh on economic activity.”
Comment: Good stuff. But let’s find a way to get from good to great, now, shall we?
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"I go out to the kitchen to feed the dog, but that's about as much cooking as I do."