
THIS ISSUE: 26 Mar - 01 Apr
Welcome to another week in this great industry we call home. Shoprite rolls on like the large red juggernaut it is, Massmart scales back substantially, and Pick n Pay throws the dice in Nigeria. Some truly delightful news from Jameson, some upsides down on the farm, and some hopeful numbers to lighten the economic gloom. Enjoy the read.
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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Pick n Pay Well OK then…
Pick n Pay has announced that it has just taken the bold step of opening its first store in … wait, that can’t be right … Lagos, Nigeria? In partnership with local outfit A.G. Leventis, apparently, even as South African businesses like Shoprite and Mr Price close shop as a result of currency devaluations, logistical challenges and difficulties repatriating profits. “The appeal is that it is a hugely underserved consumer market and is going to grow,” explains Group executive for strategy and corporate affairs David North. “You have to look through the short term and into the long-term potential”. Instead of opening the dambusting flagships that others launched with, PnP will be focusing on smaller neighbourhood stores, with A.G. Leventis providing an understanding of the regulatory process, and smoothing the way with local stakeholders.
Comment: Look, someone is eventually going to crack Nigeria. And the small format approach has the advantage of not only being adapted to local needs, but also a relatively low-risk way to fail, if that were to happen.
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Shoprite Vitamin K
Last week we touched on Shoprite’s Xtra Savings loyalty programme, let’s dig into those numbers a little. Since launching in October 2019, they’ve garnered 17 million members, who collectively saved R2.1bn in the six months through December in a total of around 9,000 grocery deals every month. We also mentioned that the business was preparing to launch its own mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) – more deets on that too. K’nect mobile, to be launched in April, will offer punters 100MB free data for three months, and flat call and data rates, with apps and data zero-rated in the Shoprite Group’s eco-system. Customers will be rewarded with free data and airtime. Finally, CEO Pieter Engelbrecht has let it be known in no uncertain terms that he would be interested in buying Massmart’s Cambridge Foods and Rhino retail when they go under the hammer. “It would be right up our alley,” he says.
Comment: A business on fire, in the best possible way.
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Massmart Mass movement
As we reported a couple weeks back, Massmart will shortly be disposing of its Cambridge and Rhino retail operations, as standalone food is not core to the business. They’re also disposing of their Massfresh offering, and now, we are told, are taking a long hard look at the rest of Africa, where the business is “under review”. According to Business Day’s irascible Chris Gilmour, this is usually shorthand for “going to be sold off or closed down.” He points out that if this were the case, it would leave the business with 22 Makros, 69 cash and carries, 120 Builders’ and 149 Games – a slim base indeed off which to launch the next phase of growth if such is planned. Unless, of course, that growth is virtual: online sales grew +58.6% to deliver R1.1bn in gross merchandising value across the business in the year through December, and Massmart is investing heavily in its e-commerce platforms to improve its distribution and support.
Comment: Massmart has tasted greatness before, and with the necessary disciplines in place, should eat of its fruits again.
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International Retailers A climate for change
Tesco has launched a ‘climate change manifesto’ that will see the retailer cutting energy consumption and food waste while encouraging healthy food habits in its customers, by cutting emissions, transitioning to electric vehicles and boosting sustainability in food production as it works to meet its 2035 climate goals. Since it launched its partnership with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) three years ago, it has exceeded its emissions targets by 15%, cutting them by 50% over the past five years. In Taipei, where people evidently do not take things lying down, just ask China, 11 supplier associations have filed a complaint against the retailer who they say passed the cost of stores it acquired last year to suppliers in the form of “additional fees”. Back to the UK, Ocado has had a heck of a year, with its website and app both crashing during the panic buying in March 2020, and sales up +35% to £2.2bn for the full year. Returns-wise it has apparently hit something of a wall though, as its investments in robot warehousing technology weigh heavily on the old bottom line.
Comment: Nice work from Tesco, showing that a profit may yet be turned while going above and beyond on behalf of dear old Mother Earth.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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Jameson Begorrah!
In a move we frankly did not see coming, Jameson – distillers of Irish whiskey – are bringing to market a skincare range for men and women, which, it seems, is only available here in the Beloved Country. Evocatively named Beatha (from the Irish phrase “water of life”), the range is made using the whiskey itself, barley, and a whole bunch of other beneficial ingredients, and promises to leave the skin hydrated, revitalised and smooth. What has prompted the move, apart of course from a natural affinity for fine, luminous Irish skin? Well, it may not have escaped your notice that the booze industry has been under a spot of pressure lately, requiring a pivot to more sustainable categories. And you can sell only so much whiskey-infused marmalade, presumably. The range currently includes a Restorative Facial Mousse, a Hydrating Facial Oil, and a Beard Oil, and will be represented by South African media personality Ayanda Thabethe, who has lovely skin, but is not to our knowledge celebrated for her luxuriant beard.
Comment: A charming move, to be sure. We wish them the luck of the Good People, so we do.
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Agriculture Big Farmer
One of the very few success stories of the last few agonising months has been the agricultural sector, which grew +13.1% in 2020, and which, the agricultural chamber of commerce Agbiz acknowledges, is expanding, with the potential to compete in more international markets. In volume terms, agriculture has grown +19% since 2010, with horticulture up +70% and animal products +43%. It’s also a highly export-oriented sector, with exports accounting for $10.2bn in 2020, up +3% YoY. So where are these brave new markets to be found? Short answer, BRICS, particularly India and China, which already absorb large volumes of agricultural imports. Over the last decade the BRICS have represented a relatively small market for South African exports, accounting for only $9.5bn in that period, but all are avid consumers of citrus, wool, nuts, apples and pears, wine, grapes, sugar and jams – which, as it turns out, we produce by the bakkie-load.
Comment: If done right, agriculture can be a sustainable and job-creating sector for a world which grows ever hungrier as it produces more mouths to feed.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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The Economy The numbers game
What’s up with the economy these days, you ask, and we are here to tell you. Inflation has dropped to its lowest rate since June last year, at 2.9% for the torpid month of February with its sticky heat and its slew of trading updates. This as you know is 0.1 percentage points south of where the Reserve Bank would like it to be, and results from (according to PwC who have some funny ideas about punctuation but are otherwise pretty solid) an “easing of price pressures in miscellaneous goods and services basket”. This as you might suspect is likely to keep the RB sanguine on the subject of raising the interest rate. The trade surplus is likely to have increased to R28.4bn in February from R11.8bn in the historically slow month of January, mainly on account of a lift in export growth, which is nice. And 4% – this is the number, pertaining to GDP growth, towards which all of us have to strive with every fibre of our being if the country is to avoid a debt trap, the budget deficit being what it is at a record high of 14% of GDP.
Comment: And that’s a wrap. Worrying numbers, with here and there a glimpse of hope as always in the Beloved Country.
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