THIS ISSUE: 29 Jan - 04 Feb
Welcome to a busy week in this Great Industry we call home: trading updates for Woolies and Clicks, awards for Checkers, the Meryl Streep of the sector, and big news for PepsiCo, concerning which we are thinking of having a word with our stock broker, Mr. R. Hood. Enjoy the read.
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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Clicks Thank you for the music
If you’ve been following the Tatler these how many years – and really, no shame if you haven’t – you may recall that we’ve been vocal in expressing our belief that Clicks should have offloaded Musica the second the internet was invented, or alternatively attempted to turn it into some sort of pioneering homegrown bricks and clicks hybrid. Ah well. They’ve now reached the former conclusion themselves, apparently, and decided to close the business as of 31 May. “Musica has been operating in a declining market … owing to the structural shift globally to the digital consumption of music, movies and games from the traditional physical format,” explained Clicks. Elsewhere, the business is going great guns according to their trading update: Group turnover up +7.8%, retail health and beauty sales up +8.0%, and wholesale via UPD, which may soon be assisting in the rollout of COVID vaccines, up +10.6%. Online sales picked up +173% over the previous year, and elsewhere sales were sustained by the preponderance of footprint in convenience locations and small local shopping centres.
Comment: So long, Musica. Not without a tear, for what we still believe was the unnecessary demise of a great South African brand.
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Woolworths Food for thought
A trading statement from Woolies for the 26 weeks through December: Group sales were up +5.3% for the period, YoY, driven substantially by Woolies Food at +12%, which seems to indicate that the Dapper One’s new pricing strategy is paying off. You will recall that the business had committed to investing R1bn over the next couple years to keep prices steady on certain food items; this has proven popular in a time of economic uncertainty even for Woolies’ upmarket customer base. Online food sales grew dramatically, at a massive +158.5% for the period, but still contributes only 2.2% to sales. The click & collect offering has proven popular however, enabling us to rush some emergency bubbly and mince pies to the family over Christmas. It was not uniformly thus across the business however: Fashion, Beauty and Home declined -11.2%, as we await the Bagattini effect to kick in. Over in Aus, David Jones was down -8.8%, enough said, and Country Road Group -5.2%, negatively impacted by the lockdown in Victoria. Excluding that unhappy state, growth (including online) was +8.2%.
Comment: Woolies Food is the gift that keeps on giving, and it would be good to see the other divisions catch up.
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Shoprite Judgement day
Per the annual 2020 Star Readers’ Choice Awards, Checkers is South Africa’s best grocery store and supermarket brand. Among the reasons for this, according to Checkers themselves, are the world class retail experience it provides, as embodied in the new Fresh X stores, the super-popular Sixty60 delivery service, its Xtra Savings rewards offering and the growing private label ranges under Simple Truth and Oh My Goodness! In other less welcome Shoprite news, the business is being impeded in its timely and well-advised exit from Kenya by an outstanding legal claim from a man who accidentally pulled a pile of plastic box lids onto his own head. A Kenyan court has ordered that Shoprite pay compensation in addition to the medical bills it has already covered, or it can’t leave the country, where it lost somewhere north of R400m last year. The judge in the case did mention that the order would be difficult to enforce.
Comment: This seems both obstructive and extreme. We’re pretty sure that The Big Red One is good for a reasonable number of Kenyan shillings, acceptable to both parties, without having to leave the bakkie behind as a deposit.
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International Retailers “Ale” di right moves (no. Ed)
“Ale” di right moves (no. Ed) Doing the right thing this week by England’s venerable brewing industry, by the ever-thirsty British punter and of course by the jolly old bottom line, is Aldi, who has bought up the stock of beer from 13 British breweries that would normally have been sold to pubs if it weren’t for COVID, and is now flogging it for as little as 99p a bottle. Yours for a song: Old Hooky or St Peters Best Bitter. Or if sir prefers something a little “hipper” as the young people say, a pint of Snake Oil from West Berkshire Brewery, or a glass of Wild Gravity from Bad Co. Also in the UK, also a German discounter, Lidl has dropped £25m into the red after opening 51 new stores in those sombre isles last year. It won’t, they say, be investing in home delivery, but will rely on price to bring the shoppers back in. Over in the US, Walmart has announced it will be expanding its use of tech solutions for picking and packing as it turns many of its stores into fulfilment centres for online delivery.
Comment: Watch and learn, SA retailers. And while you’re at it, swing us some cheap brewskis.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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PepsiCo A growing category
Way to go PepsiCo, which last week announced a partnership with Beyond Meat, purveyors of plausible plant-based burgers, to develop and sell further snack and beverage vegetally-derived products. PepsiCo will bring scale and distribution capacity to the innovation offered by Beyond in a JV known, distressingly, as The PLANeT Partnership. And it’s not just about what goes in, it’s about the how: products will be made through regenerative agriculture and in net water- and carbon-neutral production plants. “Plant-based proteins represent an exciting growth opportunity for us, a new frontier in our efforts to build a more sustainable food system and be a positive force for people and the planet, while meeting consumer demand for an expanded portfolio of more nutritious products,” explains PepsiCo global chief commercial officer Ram Krishnan.
Comment: Just brilliant. But, note to copywriters, when tempted by a clever combo of upper and lower case, just don’t.
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Agriculture Down, on the farm
One of the less-documented effects of the pandemic has been the damage to the informal trade sector and thus to associated suppliers, a result of the Government’s closure of the sector as COVID hit. This has had major effects on food supply to consumers in the townships, on the businesses themselves, and on their agricultural suppliers. Of South Africa’s 30,000 commercial farms, just 6,000 of them produce 80% of our food. Pickings are slim indeed for the other 24,000, which lack the capacity to supply the big six retailers, and sell their wares to independent wholesalers, buyer groups, cash & carries, independent retailers, spazas, street vendors, schools, directly to consumers, and to fresh produce markets. One such, the Johannesburg Fresh Produce Market, sells 60% of its produce to township suppliers and consumers, and saw a major decline over the period.
Comment: Commendably, most of the major chains now have active and growing small supplier programs, aimed at increasing their purchases from the businesses while building their capacity. But more can be done to protect this vulnerable sector, particularly by Government.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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Unemployment The numbers game
Youth unemployment is perhaps South Africa’s cruelest economic and social burden: in the more realistic expanded definition of unemployment, the rate rose from 39.7% to 42% over the course of 2020; in the 15-24 age group it ended the year at 55.97%. At the same time, GDP growth fell – and to reduce unemployment by even 10% we need the economy growing at 5-6% per annum. One issue is that between 2011 and 2019 we added almost 900,000 South Africans every year – a rate of around 1.5% per annum. In the same period, 600,000 young people entered the labour market annually. As it stands, the National Development Plan (NDP) bases its projections on population growth of 0.5%. Assuming this, and GDP growth of just 3%, we could reduce unemployment to 25% by 2030.
Comment: The numbers on unemployment are daunting. But with all solutions on the table, and our ability as a nation for reinvention and innovation, this is something we could turn around.
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