
THIS ISSUE: 01 Jul - 09 Jul
Even as the economic news worsens, there’s word of innovation and growth in the great industry we call home, among suppliers and retailers alike. As Trade Intelligence, we’ll keep bringing you that news, plus stories from global retail, in the hopes that some of it will inspire your own business to consolidate and reinvent and emerge from this crisis stronger and ready to build once it passes. Enjoy the read.
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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COVID Catch-up That’s the ticket!
We’re more than a little embarrassed not to have given this one the attention it deserved, but Shoprite have done something absolutely brilliant with their Computicket offering, which in the past we have tended to lump (with some admiration, it must be noted) into their superior portfolio of ‘value-added services’. In April, they launched virtual grocery vouchers through Computicket, which were a means of getting groceries to friends and relatives in need, and which were redeemable at any Shoprite, Checkers or Usave. Since then, they’ve sold R50m worth of vouchers, with more, no doubt to follow. And incidentally, Computicket have also been doing a brisk trade in tickets to streaming events. One of the more prominent victims of the virus, business-wise, has been the tobacco sector, and SPAR have now taken up cudgels on its behalf, signing an open letter calling for the lifting of the ban on the grounds that it is destroying revenue and livelihoods.
Comment: The zeal with which the government went after baccy and booze has indeed been one of the most masterful own goals of the current crisis.
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Pick n Pay Brave New World
In the future, retailer loyalty programmes will be able to send you customised discounts based on your purchasing history via some sort of personal communications device. Oh wait, that’s now. Here’s how it works: Using machine learning, which we totally understand, PnP gives each SmartShopper eight personalised discounts every two weeks, unique to each customer and offering cash-off savings, discounts or boosted points for products they buy most often. From the customers’ perspective, punters who have opted in will notice the discounts automatically applied and visible on their till slip when they swipe their card. According to retail executive of marketing, John Bradshaw, the future of loyalty programmes lies in offering real value in the most seamless way possible. Previously, shoppers were not enjoying everything SmartShopper had to offer. “This improvement will instantly help put money back in customers’ pockets at a time when budgets are under pressure,” he explains.
Comment: The extent to which PnP have wrung value out of SmartShopper – for both the business and its customers – has been instructive.
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Retail Property The malls have fears
A slow news week so let’s check in with the retail property sector, which is somewhat rattled right now about the troubles at Intu Properties, a JSE-listed property owner focused on UK shopping centres. Intu is R100bn in the hole and has just gone into administration, and asked the JSE to suspend its listing. At issue, say certain sage analysts, is that level of debt: you need to be looking at a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 35%-45%, or even less, to be on the safe side, they say, and you can’t assume that you’ll simply ride out the downturn. Keillen Ndlovu, Stanlib’s head of listed property funds, says that property owners need to keep up with the times, upgrading their malls and keeping abreast of the trends motivating shoppers, tenants and the competition. One such trend is, of course, the stampede to online retail, which is fast showing its mettle not simply as a source of products and services but also as a different and perhaps no less entertaining form of shopping experience.
Comment: And that will no doubt growing in leaps and bounds now, because of COVID, and post. Personally, we’d love to ‘visit’ our local mall in our PJs.
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International Retailers Supplies me
Suppliers, it is no secret, are the poor bloody infantry of every retail price war. No surprise, then, that suppliers report that Tesco has asked them to cut prices as it steps up its fight with budget supermarkets like Aldi and Lidl, matching prices with the former on over 500 branded and private label lines. No worries, say the suppliers, worried. Just tell us what, when and for how long. Tesco has reportedly not been forthcoming with the detail. Harrods and John Lewis in the meantime, at opposite ends of the department-store spectrum, are reportedly both cutting hundreds of jobs in response to the pandemic. Harrods is somewhat uniquely both an upmarket retailer and a major tourist destination, so it’s been doubly hit. Across the pond, in the meantime, Walmart are going great guns on all fronts and have announced that they’re launching a $98 a year rival to Amazon’s Prime service, offering same-day grocery deliveries inter alia.
Comment: The pandemic has spawned both winners and losers, particularly in this great industry we call home. It seems that both value and an essential basket of products and service are a good starting point.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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Tongaat Hulett Sugar and Spice
A week of mixed fortunes for sugar and golfing giant Tongaat Hulett, which got slapped with a hefty fine from the JSE but managed to offload 51% of its Namibian sugar packaging and distribution business to Bokomo for a tidy whack. Tongaat, you will recall, has Group debt of around R13bn, so while the R220m from the sale won’t flatten that, it should provide a little breathing space. In June, Tongaat sold an agribusiness in eSwatini for R375m, so there’s that. And the maximum R7.5m fine from the JSE, imposed in response to the business’ shady books in the period 2011 to 2018, while steep, won’t sink the ship either. Tongaat are talking up their turnaround strategy, expecting to report a jump of more than 200% in operating profit, which has seen the share price up just a touch after having lost 95% of its value over the past couple years. Certain analysts have commented, fairly, that the new team are thus being penalised for the transgressions of the old, some of whom are under criminal investigation, but them’s the breaks.
Comment: The turnaround of Tongaat in a global crisis will, if successful, be one for the history books.
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Distell Cheers
Like every other liquor business (and the South Africans who patronise them), Distell has had a rough couple of months, resulting in a decline in revenue of -15.4% for the year through most of June, volumes down -23.3% for the period, and HEPS down by an expected -60% to 80%. With the easing of export restrictions and the end of Prohibition, however, things have started to look up again, although the bottleneck at the Port of Cape Town is causing issues. Distell, being a can-do South African business, has in the meantime launched a web-based solution to the tricky problem of flogging booze while everyone’s locked up at home. Click2Collect.co.za allows the thirsty among us to fully stock the bar while lounging in front of the PS4, from, get this, their local liquor store. It connects users with a network of 22,000 taverns and off-licences nationwide, thus not incidentally providing those erstwhile outlets with and ongoing revenue stream for the duration.
Comment: However long that might be.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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Employment A hard row
As the economy shrank by -2% in the second quarter and widespread scepticism prevailed – including among the ratings agencies – that the Government would be able to achieve the dramatic cost reductions outlined by Minster Mboweni in his special budget last week, and economists looked nervously to the fuel price hike barrelling down towards us, and even as the word ‘depression’ sighed like the wind through the lone eucalyptus by the roadside picnic spot, South Africans sought work in ever diminishing numbers. Perhaps they have realised that seek as they might there is no work to be found, with unemployment at a record 30.1% for the first quarter, and an additional 344,000 people jobless. This gives us a total of 7.1million of our beautiful young people and strong mothers and upright fathers who are jobless, and a rate of 40% predicted for the second quarter. For more on our unemployment stats, be elucidated by our monthly report here.
Comment: Our economic situation is as dire as it has perhaps ever been. But there are some objective realities. One is that we remain one of the biggest economies on a continent that is just beginning its development journey. The second is that we are a nation of entrepreneurs and innovators with global recognition, and have achieved the impossible more than once in our history. Now is the time to pull together and get through it. The time will come again to grow, and we must be ready.

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“This explains why I've been making Recession Tea – letting a teabag steep for half the time it should so I can use it again for a second cup later.”
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