
THIS ISSUE: 02 Nov - 07 Nov
This week we bid a sad farewell to our founder Maryla Masojada, who after fifteen years of serving our clients and partners has decided to pursue other interests. Maryla grew (Ti) Trade Intelligence from an idea – hers – into the force it is in the industry today. We wish her well, and look forward to seeing her name in these columns in the future. We also take great pleasure in welcoming our new MD, Natasha Smith, who comes to us via such notable companies as SABMiller and P&G, and brings a new energy to the business. More on this may be found here.
In other news, last week, Moody’s took a bet against South Africa. Which, if you ask the English bookies, doesn’t always work out the way you expected. Still, a couple weeks back we made a misjudgement of our own, going with the popular view that Moody’s would hold rather than fold. We’re sorry for that. But this week at least, we have lots else to be cheerful about. Enjoy the read.
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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Dis-Chem DisQuieting…
Teething problems for Dis-Chem which released a disappointing trading update last week, and, being a listed company, promptly took a hit to the old share price. Having let it be known last Friday that headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the six months to August could tank by 35% on the release of the interim results, punters fled the stock to the tune of 9.5% over the weekend. What’s amiss? According to Dis-Chem, no one thing, just a few once-off costs including a R81m unearned rebate release, a change in the bonus policy, and strike-related costs. The bonus, which is guaranteed, now gets accrued across the full year, whereas previously it was accounted for only in December. And the strike cost R19m in security and additional staffing alone.
Comment: Still. In a week when rival Clicks reported HEPS northward of +16%, this was not the news Dis-Chem aficionados were wanting to hear.
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Shoprite Northern exposure
Shoprite have handled the vicissitudes of the SA trade pretty well these past three months, all things considered, with quarterly revenue up +7.3% for the Group and an impressive +10.3% for its South African operations. Elsewhere on the continent, not so grand: sales fell -4.9% in a time of currency volatility abroad and xenophobic violence back home. Some stores in Nigeria and Zambia were forced to close in the face of reprisals against South African-owned businesses, of which, in Africa, South Africa has become emblematic. And speaking of Africa, this tersely worded and ominous statement from the Group: “Management is assessing the performance of the Supermarkets Non-RSA segment, with specific reference to the Group’s return on capital invested in Africa.” CEO Pieter Engelbrecht went further, telling investors at the AGM that the business might consider exiting certain geographies. Oh yes, and Oom Christo was elected back onto the board, leading to the shock resignation of Shoprite lead independent director, Prof Shirley Zinn, just a few short days later.
Comment: Interesting times for the Group, interesting times.
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Informal Trade Dispensing with(out) waste
Showing the way for the rest of us, as it so often does, is South Africa’s informal trade, which against daunting odds continues to hustle and thrive and innovate the heck out of the many challenges it faces on a daily basis. Sometimes, it must be said, with a little help from its friends. Case in point: retail solutions company Smollan, together with design outfit DYDX, have come up with nifty dispensers which allow shoppers to buy food and homecare products in values from as little as a rand a pop, while reducing the prevalence of single use plastics at spazas. The Gcwalisa dispenser features an on-board computer with IoT sensors that measure volume, and goods are dispensed into reusable containers, allowing brands to deliver bulk into the informal channel and for the shop-owners to distribute in micro-sizes to cost-conscious punters. “Innovation requires asking different questions and lots of on-the-ground research and prototyping,” said Smollan innovation exec Rudi Nienaber. “Our starting point was to turn products into services – which led to a series of new ideas, of which Gcwalisa was the best one.”
Comment: Brilliant. With potential, we imagine, for almost limitless scale.
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International Retailers A darkness is upon the land
In the US, online grocery shopping has become so popular that people picking up orders for third-party services such as Instacart often outnumber legitimate shoppers in stores, congesting the aisles and clogging up the checkouts. The solution? Dark Stores – actual shops with storefronts and all the other bells and whistles, but closed to actual shoppers. Others are installing micro-fulfilment centres in the backs of their own stores, and Albertsons has installed robots in two of these to speed up the picking process. Over in the still, but just barely, United Kingdom, Tesco is taking on cheap German discounters Aldi and Lidl, by giving out a new loyalty card. That, erm, you have to pay for. No, wait! Clubcard Plus members will pay £7.99 a month to receive discounts on a whole bunch of stuff, plus 10% off two shopping trips of up to £200 per month. Or in other words, a maximum saving of £40.
Comment: Um, sure, OK. Why not.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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Tiger Brands The baseless rumours department
Our colleagues over at FM have let it be known that Tiger Brands may be on the hunt for a buyer for their troubled Enterprise division, which was at the centre of last year’s listeriosis outbreak. The Striped One has reputedly engaged the services of a banking business to test the waters for possible acquisition. And this, apparently, is common knowledge in the industry. Enterprise, makers of processed meat products, has been under the hammer before, most recently during the stewardship of Peter Matlare a few years back. And Tiger are in a selling frame of mind, having recently unbundled Oceana brands, and eager to focus on their higher-margin portfolio. Enterprise, of course, is not in the strongest position to be sold right now, but does have some attractive assets, like its four processing plants.
Comment: Selling off Enterprise without a full-hearted resolution of the listeriosis tragedy might not be the best way to go about it though.
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Tongaat Hulett Artificial sweetener?
Look… absolutely nothing to do with the accounting scandal that has brought SA’s biggest sugar producer low, but Tongaat Hulett seems to be aiming for nothing less than a complete reinvention of their business right now. They have launched a scheme to set up a ‘transformative’ sugar milling, refining and marketing business with the participation of equity shareholders, including all current supply chain partners and growers, with a target of over 50% black ownership. “The milling, refining and sugar marketing business will be implemented on a scale that has never been achieved in the sugar industry,” says a slightly breathless Gavin Hudson, CEO and current bearer of the poisoned chalice, and the business would produce sugar-related products, including speciality sugars, syrups and liquids. Opportunities in bioplastics, ethanol and additional co-generation have also been identified, thereby lowering carbon emissions and allowing the group to cater for the growing world demand for renewable products.
Comment: Shrewd, and timely. Let’s see how it all spins out, shall we?
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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The Economy Who will rate the ratings’ agencies?
So Moody’s have one and done it, haven’t they? Downgraded our ratings outlook from stable to negative, on the assumption that the government will not succeed in arresting the deterioration of its finances through a revival in economic growth and fiscal consolidation measures. This as the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) tabled last week by the Minister of Finance revealed no action on the deficit, spending cuts that underwhelmed, little in the way of new economic policy, and no answer as yet on how best to dispose of Eskom’s debt. On the (very patchy) upside, this gives us until next February’s budget to get our act together, economically, and stave off being downgraded to junk status.
Comment: Three months is not a long time to effect this turnaround. Hell, it took Rassie Erasmus two whole years, and he didn’t even have to deal with Eskom.

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If there ever was a time when we should wish them well and wish them the best; and pray for them, this is the time. South Africa’s moment has arrived.
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