
THIS ISSUE: 16 Aug - 22 Aug
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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Shoprite Crystal Clear
Stop the presses! Shoprite results are in, and to be honest, it’s a bit of a mixed bag: turnover up +3.6% to R150.4bn, and gross profit up +1.8% to R35.3bn. Operating profit was down, unfortunately, by -8.2% to R6.9bn, as non-RSA businesses turned in a trading loss of R265m as a result of forex shortages and currency devaluations, which meant that shoppers elsewhere in Africa were paying a premium for Shoprite’s almost exclusively imported offering. Sales were strong back home, however, growing +7.4% in the final six months of the year and boosting the overall performance. Where to from here? Shoprite will maintain its commitment to growth beyond our borders, while trialling a concept it’s calling ‘precision retailing’, a sharp focus on bridging existing gaps and mitigating externalities. “The year reflects two contrasting halves,” says CEO Pieter Engelbrecht. “However, we ended it very strong in the RSA Supermarket operations, increasing sales momentum, and are now back in business in H2 with improved volumes, visits and spend per visit.” For Ti’s succinct summary of the results, click here.
Comment: As the man has by his own admission not one but two crystal balls, we’re inclined to take him seriously.
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Choppies If you can’t stand the heat….
Choppies are getting out of the hot and noisy kitchen that is South African retail, because, they say, economic growth here is stuttering and unemployment is high, or words to that effect, and not because the business is in a giant hole of its own making, oh no. “Exiting the South African market is the appropriate strategic decision for the company,” they intoned sombrely after a recent strategic review. “Choppies has commenced a process which may result in the divestment of Choppies Supermarkets SA (Pty) Ltd in whole or in part.” In other, entirely unrelated news, the dispute between added CEO Ramachandran Ottapathu is going to an extraordinary general meeting about what exactly is in those financial statements from last year that have as yet to be released.
Comment: While we may hanker after another major player in the South African grocery sector, perhaps Choppies wasn’t the right fit for our unique context.
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Dis-Chem Would you like some Valium with that overdraft?
For those bricks and mortar retailers worried about the virulent spread of online, here’s something else to wake yourself up at 3am for: Dis-Chem have partnered with FNB to offer a click and collect service for prescription medication. Interestingly, though, the partnership came about because FNB needed tech support, not the other way round. At the end of May, you see, Dis-Chem bought a 50% share in Health Windows, a tech business which, inter alia, tracks patient data and reminds them to renew their scripts. They also offer monthly phone calls to have their medication prepared for collection at pharmacies – a service FNB was unable to offer on its NAV mobile app. For Dis-Chem, the partnership will drive new customers to their dispensaries, which have historically trailed the growth of other departments, and reduce the queues once they get there.
Comment: A shrewd move by Dis-Chem, which is unlikely at this point to beat rival Clicks on store numbers alone.
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Pick n Pay Carded
Another retailer entering into a promising partnership this week is Pick n Pay, which has just announced a tripartite agreement with Absa and card provider UnionPay International (UPI), which will enable the use of UPI cards at 1,800 stores across South Africa. For Pick n Pay the deal will add one more smooth and secure payment option to the portfolio, and perhaps a chance to grab some more of those plentiful tourist bucks; for UnionPay it’s another notch on the belt: the business currently works with 2,000-odd institutions globally, and another couple are not going to hurt. Pick n Pay is their first big South African retailer; doubtless others will follow.
Comment: Nuts and bolts stuff. Or, if you’d prefer, the glue that holds retailers and their customers together.
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International Retailers Oh and by the way, you’re paying for Brexit
In Ireland, Lidl have reminded British suppliers that they will be picking up the tab for any import duties for cross-border goodies post Brexit. All existing Lidl contracts contain a DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) clause which means that the cost of transporting goods, including tariffs on EU exports, are the responsibility of suppliers. In their statement on the subject, Lidl refer to them, rather cheekily, as “valued suppliers”. Not a laughing matter anyway: on dairy, tariffs average 35%. Across the pond, Walmart saw second quarter sales grow just 1.8% YoY to a still-tidy $130.4bn, while operating income shrank -2.9% to $5.6bn, dragged thither by the troubled Indian operation Flipkart. In the US, where they are sick of winning, it was up a much healthier 4%. Also in the US, department store Macy’s is watching in dismay as its share price tanks at the hands of online rivals, which, at this point, we do not even have to refer to by name.
Comment: There is in fact a retail bloodbath going on over there, with stores shuttering even on Fifth Avenue.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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Libstar Twinkle, twinkle
Bit of a shakeup over at Libstar, the investment holding company that owns Denny Mushrooms, Goldcrest and Lancewood, 37.02% of the stock in which has just been flogged to one Actis, a swashbuckling private equity outfit which invests in growth in Africa, Asia and Latin America. It’s deeply encouraging that they view us as a good deal. In other Libstar news, the business reported interim gross organic revenue growth of +4.5% in the six months through June, although they also mentioned that HEPS are likely to be down by as much as -34% because of new accounting standards adopted during the period. Notable performers were the core categories of dry condiments, snacks and confectionery, and baking and baking aids. Analysts seem to like the business, which they believe will turn in a stronger second half performance.
Comment: One of those quiet achievers which speckle the ranks of our great manufacturing sector.
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SA Suppliers Do not ask for whom the bell tolls
A mixed bag of other news this week. RCL have not unexpectedly let it be known that its earnings for the year through June are likely to fall by as much as 66-odd%, hit by a difficult local market and cheap imports in the chicken business and by the government’s new sugar tax on beverages, which has forced the business – ironically – to export its sugar more cheaply. IMPERIAL Logistics have announced that their HEPS are likely to fall by a worrying -75% for the same period, as it prepares for a R1.4bn write-down of its South African consumer packaged goods business, which has been classified as a discontinued operation for the financial year. The impairment includes provisions for retrenchments and the exit of leases. Finally, undeterred by the anger of the Boycott Disinvestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement (supported by certain trade unions), Israeli outfit Central Bottling Company (CBC), which has made an offer for the purchase of Clover, has let it be known that it is in South Africa for the long haul.
Comment: Tough times for the sector.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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The Economy Stuff and nonsense
Another turbulent week in the dear old SA Economy, with some alarmists predicting the collapse of the rand and the IMF stepping in to sweep everything up into neat little piles. Not so, says Alexander Forbes’ Isaah Mhlanga. “These commentators are outright sensationalist and have no plausible justification for such disproportionate levels,” he thunders. “While economic growth remains at pedestrian pace, conditions are nowhere close to forcing SA to go to the IMF for a bailout. This is scaremongering.” Also not so, says the IMF’s own Montfort Mlachila. “To tell you the truth we much prefer countries to resolve their own problems and I’ve no doubt that SA has the capacity to address its own problems in the various areas, especially on the growth front, as well as on the fiscal front,” his words, not ours. Elsewhere in the economy, you’ll know by the time you read this how much inflation has dropped by – a little, or a lot – which will be a reflection on the state of economic growth.
Comment: Our economy is down. But according to some pretty heavy hitters it is by no means out.

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It is only fair to admit, however, that my batting average in the crystal ball league is point, zero, zero, zero.
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