
THIS ISSUE: 24 May - 30 May
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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Massmart Suit up
As a mark of their continued interest in Massmart’s fortunes, and perhaps as a vote of confidence in this troubled economy of ours, Walmart are dispatching one of their own, Walmart Japan CEO Mitchell Slape, to take the reins post the December 2019 exit of Guy Hayward. This suggests that the Big Feller is going to become more involved in the control of day-to-day operations, and even, some analysts suggest, that Walmart might be looking to take full control of the Group. This despite the declining share price, which has seen Walmart lose around 80% of the value of its initial investment. Or perhaps because of it: the other 49% of the business could now justifiably be considered a bargain if a turnaround is in the offing. Slape, who is an old Walmart hand, has served the group in Mexico and in India as COO. In Japan, he was in part responsible for the turnaround of the ailing Seiyu chain. If his experience there is anything to go by, store revamps and the growth of online are likely to be on the cards.
Comment: A development we will be watching with considerable interest. A strong Massmart business is a strong vote for our economy and FMCG industry.
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Shoprite Food for thought
Tuesday was World Hunger Day, so fitting that we take a peak under the bonnet of Shoprite’s efforts to end hunger here in the Beloved Country. For starters, Shoprite and Checkers support 78 community food gardens across South Africa with ongoing training and mentoring taking place for at least 18 months, to ensure long-term food security. Gardens also receive essential infrastructure such as water tanks and gardening tools. They’ve also invested in 43 early childhood development (ECD) centres, providing 435,629 meals to learners so far. And they run a fleet of 19 mobile soup kitchens, used in part for disaster relief efforts. Finally, they cut waste by donating surplus food – 590 tons of it from their supermarkets last year, and 133 from their supply chain.
Comment: This is excellent work. As, we would say, it is with almost every one of our South African FMCG retailers. But to bring it scale, imagine if all of the retailers, and a few of the suppliers, could work in concert in one of these initiatives?
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Store Openings Get it while its hot
A couple of interesting store openings this week. The first is a new Food Lover’s Eatery in Braamfontein's Business Improvement District, where punters will be able to take a veritable tour of food trends from the past half-decade or so. Wraps? Check. Sushi belt? Hai! Burritos? ¡Sí, señor! A build-your-own Poké bar? Mahalo. And a “Pap”arazzi bar? Beslis ja. The general idea, says CEO Brian Coppin, is “a hot-food emporium with a distinct New York deli feel.” Does it work? Ask one of the 4,000 punters who queued up outside on opening day. Meanwhile in Benoni, Kit Kat has opened a Halaal Rebel Food store-within-a-store inside its existing cash & carry, with offerings that include a butchery, a bakery and a florist. First of its kind according to Kit Kat, and fully accredited with the National Independent Halaal Trust (NIHT), all facilities and products are strictly regulated by Halaal control measures.
Comment: South African retailers taking it to the next level as always. Their ingenuity in adversity is world beating, and inspires us every day.
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International Retailers Melodramatix
In France, retailer Casino, which owns such illustrious brands as Monoprix and Franprix, has filed for bankruptcy protection after a long battle with hedge funds, who hate its complicated ownership structure, and have subjected its shares to “persistent and massive speculative attacks” (their words). Over the pond, Marks & Spencer reports that its turnaround plan is going fantastically well and is totally on target, which means, presumably, that the -10% decline in full year profit is all part of the grand strategy. This strategy involves closing weaker stores, reshaping its clothing and food businesses, cutting costs and overhauling technology. According to the CEO Steve Rowe, “We’re judging ourselves as much by the pace of change as by the trading outcomes.”
Comment: Which is something we wished we’d said when confronted with our tenth grade maths results.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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BAT Yay, mergers!
Big tobacco might not in fact end up getting much bigger after a ruling by the Competition Tribunal to the effect that Gold Leaf Tobacco and Philip Morris South Africa will be participants in the merger proceedings involving BAT’s planned acquisition of Twisp, which is not a range of cosmetics aimed at tween girls, but a range of vaping products also aimed at tw … oh, never mind. In other words, Gold Leaf and Philip Morris will be allowed to weigh in on this deal by a competitor. They aver that they have something which may be of use to the Tribunal as it weighs its decision. They will however be limited to leading evidence about potential exclusionary conduct by BAT at the retail level, and the conditions that should be imposed by the Tribunal on BAT should the merger be approved.
Comment: We are for a balanced market our side, and a view is anything that keeps really big companies down to a reasonable size is not a bad thing, or is it?
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Tiger Brands Red in tooth and claw. And financials.
Those Tiger interims, then. As you’d expect in this year which included Eskom, elections and, in Tiger’s case, the fallout from listeriosis, they were not all that: revenue down -2% to R15.4bn, net profit down -1% to R1.4bn, and headline earnings down -11%. Value added meats – the division hit by listeriosis – reported an operating loss of R296m, and exports and international revenues fell -11% to R1.7bn. Grains also saw a steep decline, while baby care, if you’re looking for a silver lining, grew revenue +22% to R476m, and home and personal care were also up. The sale of the Group’s shares in Oceana to Brimstone also hit HEPS.
Comment: A rough six months, and as Tiger step up for a bruising battle in the class action lawsuit against listeriosis victims (two words: Erin Brokovich), the next interim period might be similarly tricky. We hope not though, and look forward to seeing the benefits of the organisational restructure start to pay off for the Tiger team.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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The Economy An economy, with the truth.
A mixed bag of economic news this week. First up, Standard & Poor’s, adopting a ‘wait-and-see’ approach as predicted, and maintaining a stable outlook on expectations that the government will focus on reforms to revive the economy. Then CPI, declining unexpectedly, albeit only slightly, from 4.5% to 4.4% and providing some pale relief for consumers. And then the lending rate, kept at 6.75% by the Reserve Bank, but with the possibility of a cut in July. The bad news is that the Monetary Policy Committee has revised our GDP growth expectation downward, for an average of 1% after March’s prediction of 1.3%. Finally, President Cyril has signed a carbon tax into effect, from 1 June, which will punish large emitters, incentivise those reducing emissions, and hopefully persuade us all to factor carbon and what it wreaks into all of our future purchasing decisions.
Comment: That’s a wrap.
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