
THIS ISSUE: 18 Jan - 24 Jan
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
-
Clicks Healthy growth
Fun fact: Clicks’ share price has climbed 2,500% since 2006, when David Kneale took over as CEO. Now on to more workaday matters: a trading update from Clicks reveals that sales grew +7.8% for the 20 weeks through mid-January, or +4.5% on a like-store basis. Admittedly, this is down from +13% last year, but still better than some of the other major retailers, all of whom have suffered in this very challenging ambit. Retail health and beauty sales rose +8.6%, driven thither by a successful promotion strategy centred around Clicks’ time-honoured ‘3 for 2’ offers according to new CEO Vikesh Ramsunder. Surprisingly, punters weren’t exactly clicking their heels over the numbers: while the share price jumped on the news, it subsequently retreated, to close -0.8% down on where it had started on the day.
Comment: A victim of its own success perhaps. The vagaries of the stock market aside, this remains an impressive performance under trying conditions from a very successful business.
-
-
Woolworths F-f-f-f-f-f-f-f-fashion!
A trading update from the Dapper One, which reported that sales for the 26 weeks through December 23 grew +1.9% compared with +2.5% for the same period plus one trading day last year. What gives? Food sales were respectable, at +6.3%, while Fashion, Beauty and Home declined by a now all too familiar -2% – unhelped, apparently, by the introduction of David Jones products onto local racks. In Australia, David Jones itself grew +1%, which is unlikely to cover the costs of its R21bn acquisition in a hurry, and Country Road +2.3%. The comparative success in Food was driven by lower inflation, plus the Group’s investments in promotions and pricing.
Comment: We have said it before: Woolies is a world beater when it comes to food. But in a crowded market that now contains international players like H&M and Zara, it needs to up its fashion game, or stick to what it does brilliantly.
-
-
SPAR The mysterious East
A truly beautiful new SPAR has just opened in Kalubowila, Sri Lanka, where place names, like those here in the Beloved Country, tend to run to a few syllables. The new store is SPAR’s second in that newly resurgent geography and it’s everything you’d expect from a spanking new SPAR, plus, as seen in this extremely cheerful video, a couple of local additions: spices forever, a magnificently stocked and appointed fish section, and a promise above each gondola end that Every Rupee Counts. The original store, at Thalawathigoda in Colombo, has just received its wine and spirits license. SPAR plans to open at least another 44 stores by 2023, primarily through its proven method of developing independent retailers. Its Sri Lankan business is owned 50/50 in a JV with Ceylon Biscuits Limited. Sri Lanka has emerged as a retail hotspot in recent years, with rising consumer disposable income, increased urbanisation, growing tourism and the shift to a more formal food retail economy.
Comment: The expansion of SPAR South Africa into unexpected new territories is one of the great South African business stories of the current decade. We look forward to seeing how it unfolds.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
-
Pioneer Foods Stake and chips
Change is in the wind over at Pioneer Foods, with African Empowerment Equity Investments (AEEI) looking to increase its stake in the business. Pioneer, of course, brings to market such iconic brands as Sasko, Weet-bix, ProNutro, White Star, Safari, Ceres and Liquifruit; AEEI holds a controlling stake in such businesses as Premier Fishing & Brands and Ayo Technology Solutions. The Pioneer share price has almost halved since early 2017, like many of the businesses in the sector, squeezed as they have been by adverse conditions for consumers. The priceis not quite attractive enough yet for AEEI, who would like a slightly bigger discount, and whose plans will be announced in the next few months. They currently own a 0.75% stake in the business valued at R143m.Comment: Not such a very big deal then, although a bigger stake in Pioneer combined with their current holdings in Premier Fishing & Brands would make them a significant player in this great industry we call home.
-
-
Distell Stop wining!
In a modest shakeup for the venerable industry, Distell has decided to consolidate all of its premium wine brands under one NIT, Libertas Vineyards and Estate, which will encompass brands like Alto, Nederburg, Durbanville Hills, Plaisir de Merle, Pongrácz, Fleur du Cap and Allesverloren, as well as the “unique heritage assets” of Chateau Libertas, Zonnebloem and the Tabernacle. One of the first orders of business is a good hard look at the portfolio, which currently includes eight brands and forty sub brands across 22 grape varietals and 384 SKUs, which sell in 88 markets globally. Are they all keeping their end of the bargain up? Probably not: “The cost of this complexity is significant and it hinders our ability to focus and support winning propositions,” says Libertas MD Kay Nash. Another priority is to revitalise the iconic Oude Libertas property, presumably in order to boost the brand and pocket a few readies at the same time.
Comment: Exciting stuff from a great business in an iconic South African category.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
-
The Outlook Who will rate the raters?
While some institutions have expressed doubts about the resilience of the dear old South African economy – the World Bank, as you will recall, puts growth for the year at just +1.3% – the ratings agencies seem to be taking a slightly more bullish view. Standard & Poors, for example (who, admittedly, still hold our creditworthiness at sub-investment grade) are confident that we’ll rebound, anticipating that the “implementation of reforms, including the recently announced fiscally neutral growth package, will boost investor confidence, investment, and growth.” And they reckon that we’ll positively tear along at growth of +2% in the next couple of years. They also like the steps Team Cyril has taken to return our State-Owned Enterprises to viability, and aren’t too concerned about the prospect of land reform either.
Comment: Are things rosy? They are not. But we seem to have pulled out of the freefall we were in two years ago and regained some measure of control.
IN BRIEF
-
Tongaat Hulett And the title goes to
Congrats and good luck to John Gavin Hudson, who takes over the reins at the recently troubled Tongaat Hulett, where his first order of business will be “leading the strategic review and direction of Tongaat Hulett in order to restore shareholder returns to acceptable levels, improve cash generation and reduce debt levels,” according to éminences grise at Tongaat itself. Mr H comes via a very successful career over at SABMiller, and a recent stint as CEO of Turkish outfit Anadolu Efes.
-
-
Digital Retail Fired up, wired up
If you’re at all serious about digital retail – and frankly, if you’re in business, you should be in digital – you should get yourself over to this year’s Digital Retail Forum, on 30 January at the Hilton in Sandton. Under the theme “Harnessing Digital Technology for Next-Level Customer Centred Retailing”, #DigitalRetailForum will bring together hundreds of Africa’s retail and technology leaders to engage and give insights on how emerging technology trends such as AI, IoT, drones, digital payment solutions, new ecommerce models and mobility are disrupting the retail sector. This event will also delve into how to survive by harnessing new technology to improve both customer experience and operational efficiency. Speakers include key executives from Exclusive Books, FNB and, interestingly, Food Concepts Plc of Nigeria. See you there!
-
-
International Retailers The Closer
Over in Blighty, iconic high street retailer Marks & Sparks has announced that it will be closing 100 of its 300 main stores by 2022 to focus on its more profitable outlets and move a third of its sales online. Across the Pond, in related news, general merchandiser Sears, which was basically Amazon before there was an internet, has been saved from closure by a $5.3bn bid from billionaire investor Edward Lampert who took the business into bankruptcy last year but now plans to save it using a model involving fewer stores. And French giant Carrefour is optimising its supply chain using AI. Or as they call it in France, “le AI”.