The Economy An economy, with the facts
How are things shaping up for the dear old South African in this brave new year? Well, for starters, with the return to economic growth, however modest, the lower fuel price, and the generally modest inflation outlook, the Reserve Bank is likely to keep the repo rate unchanged this week. On the downside, SA’s Business Confidence Index (BCI), as measured by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci), declined from 96.1 points in November to 95.2 in December, driven thither by a basket of factors including lower merchandise export volumes, the decreased value of building plans passed and weaker new vehicle sales. And the World Bank has revised its growth forecast for SA downwards, from 1.8% for the year to 1.3%, and word on the street is that the ratings agencies might take a similar stance. Globally, slowdowns in China and the US are anticipated by the gloomier economists, and this could have a dampening effect on our own economy.
Comment: Remember, though, that 2018 finished stronger than we had anticipated. There’s life on the old economy yet.