THIS ISSUE: 21 Sep - 27 Sep
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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Clicks 2000 not out
2000% and some change. That’s the amount by which the Clicks share price has risen under the steady hand of David Kneale, who joined the business from Boots when the Tatler was just a gleam in our editor’s eye, 13 years ago. His achievements during this time have been legion, from the purchase of UPD and with it the move into pharmacy distribution, to rolling out in-store clinics and driving the full-service pharmacy agenda, to the purchase of pharmacies from Netcare not so long ago. And then of course just sticking to the knitting and executing on the strategy, getting supply chain and on-shelf right and responding to the wave of escalating demands from consumers for health and wellness products and solutions. All of which is just the lead up, of course, to the fact that having served out his contract, he’s retiring from the business, and handing over the reins to Vikesh Ramsunder, who has been with the business since 1993.
Comment: Played, sir. A truly remarkable innings.
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Massmart Hurry, boy, she’s waiting there for you!
A Walmart spokesperson: “We remain committed to investment in Africa and are well-positioned to foster development and growth in the region through investments, distribution supply chains, agriculture, technology and job creation." Translation: “OK, the Massmart deal has been good. We’ve doubled our turnover on the African continent, and turned a reasonable profit. But the business hasn’t exactly gone ballistic. South Africa’s challenging, Angola’s gone sketchy on us, and Nigeria is frankly insane. We’ve pulled out of Brazil under new (and slightly more recently embattled) CEO Doug McMillon, although Brazil was a disaster. Looking at Massmart currently, they’re taking a short to medium-term hit in profitability. But their focus is on alignment and optimising supply chain infrastructure, reducing operating costs at regional and head office levels and establishing format clarity – all of which are a good infrastructural base for us to leverage growth in Africa – it’s just taking longer than we initially thought
Comment: So – they’re probably going to stay in Africa, and with Massmart, for now.
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Choppies Better late than… oh wait
As you may recall, earlier this year that Botswanean (Is that a word? Ed.) retailer, Choppies, raised the eyebrows of certain analysts when it delayed publishing its half-year results by a couple of months. And whaddaya know, it’s happening again with its full-year financials, causing the Choppies share price to fall some 85% a few days ago. So what’s the deal? “A number of matters requiring the attention of the board and management, which may impact materially on the results, are being considered. The possible reporting impacts of these matters have not yet been finally and fully determined,” said the company in statement which has got some thinking that there may be issues in the group’s internal controls. And then the tussle going on with its Zimbabwean shareholders over the size of their loot is not helping to expedite things any either.
Comment: Be this as it may or may not, we’ll reserve judgment for when the results actually do reach our desks. Our hope is that it will be all good things.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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Rhodes Foods Long and winding
Rhodes Foods, which to date we have always reported on in effervescent, buoyant terms, has issued its first profit warning, a grim rite of passage for the recently listed. Last year they delivered headline earnings of R237m; this year they expect it to come through at anywhere between 28% and 38% south of that. Interest payments, an increasingly tricky trading climate, and the drought in the Western Cape were the reason given, and while international sales have been up a little, profits have been a little meh over there as a result of the depressed pricing of industrial purée and concentrate pricing which we’ve been warning you all about these how many months. And about those interest payments, which are coming through at about R28m higher than last year, they pertain largely to the acquisition of Ma Baker and other things we’re going to get our accountant to explain to us in the morning.
Comment: Rhodes had the misfortune of listing just as things got dire. Which should toughen it up for the long haul, and give it some stories to tell its grandkids.
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Aspen That’s Aspen a lot
Last week, Aspen disposed of its baby food business to the somewhat literally named French business Lactalis for $860m. They also reported a fairly solid set of results, with revenue up +3% to R42.5bn and pre-tax earnings +5% to R12bn. The shareholders rewarded this performance by … what? That can’t be right! By, as it turns out, deserting the share in droves, to the extent that it promptly lost 35%, the biggest decline in 20 years. What got the wind up the shareholders? The darlings believed that they were getting $1bn for their milk powder, and were sad.
Comment: A bit of a rocky patch then. We reckon, however, that Mr Saad has at least a couple of comebacks in him.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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The Economy Stimulus siphume South Africa
Last week, South Africa’s CEO Cyril Ramaphosa announced a R50bn not-quite-a-stimulus package for economic growth and job creation, the money to come from between the cushions in our national sofa, as far as we can tell. The package includes an infrastructure fund, a spanking new Mining Charter, easier visas for big-spending tourists, the development of township businesses and industrial parks called Whispering Pines and Bonnie Glen… and cheaper data. Curiously, no mention is made of tax breaks for the editors of slightly cheeky trade weeklies. The Package has been greeted with sniffs of disapprobation from the DA and howls of rage from the EFF. The CEO Initiative, however, are all over it, liking the measures themselves and loving the fact that they won’t be financed by debt.
Comment: Some solid stuff in there, with upsides for growth and employment that are likely to be modest. But a start.
IN BRIEF
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Pick n Pay Hepsolutely fabulous
A trading update from Pick n Pay, and one not accompanied by the shuffling of feet from the board and low rumbling sounds from the analysts, like they used to be back in the day. No: this time the Big Blue has let it be known that due to staff layoffs and not necessarily to any prodigious feat of retailing, headline earnings per share – HEPS, if you will – are likely to come through at +85% or thereabout for the year to June. And turnover up by +6.4%.
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International Retailers The Blitz Part II
In three years’ time, Aldi and Lidl together will be bigger than Asda and Sainsbury’s combined, which if you’re a British retailer is probably more than a little terrifying. And for Tesco, the launch of cut price trading brand Jack’s is probably a little too little, too late. And over in the USSA, Walmart will shortly commence to hike its prices for cheap Chinese junk, because of Donald Trump’s vanity trade war. It’s good to be governed by actual adults sometimes.
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