The pronouncements of Chairman Ackerman the Younger are paid sharper attention today than they were when we started here at Tatler Towers as a cheeky young scamp of an office boy in the year dot. But that’s just the way of the world; it’s amazing how a sprinkling of grey hair will quieten a room. Where were we? Ah yes. Gareth Ackerman. Speaking at the Pick n Pay AGM last week, he waxed passionately about the importance of jobs to SA’s people, and mentioned that Pick n Pay had managed to create an additional 14,000 of them in the past three years, jobs, not people, obviously, having spent R5.3bn on store openings and refurbs, and supply chain upgrades. He also gave a shout out to Pick n Pay’s 10,000 suppliers, notable employers all, who contribute a total of 400,000 jobs to the economy. And then there are the 15,000 the business intends adding in the next three years. 

Comment: Of course, Pick n Pay is not alone in its contributions. But this does rather shine a light on the importance of our great industry to the national project. Any comments from our supplier friends?

No big continent-shaking initiatives or strategies from Shoprite this week but a smattering of interesting bits and pieces. For starters – and this one is a little continent-rattling to be honest – the Big Red One has just opened its 25th store in Nigeria, in the new Novare Central mall in Wuse, Abuja. Shoprite launched in Nigeria 12 years ago; it’s been a slog, but all evidence points to critical mass having been achieved. Back home, Shoprite are running a compo for small businesses, called Shoprite Hustle, and 36 winners over a 3-month period will each receive cash and marketing support to the tune of R70,000.  And speaking of tunes, “hip-hop rapper” artist Cassper Nyovest has recently debuted an ad he did for Shoprite on the back of his “thug life” celebration, Doc Shebeleza. 

Comment: Finger on the pulse, bases covered, all squared away.

Last week we talked up Massmart’s interims a touch, and bless them, they hastened to contradict us not three or four days later. The outlook, they have mentioned in a trading update, is not as rosy as all that, with HEPS – the holy grail of some analysts looking to measure a business’ True Profitability™ – expected to fall somewhere in the order of 26% for the six months to June. And if you’d spoken to them a little earlier, they would have told you it was an even bleaker picture. The problem says one analyst, is Massmart’s high-volume, low-margin business model that depends on steadily-rising inflation for its success. When volumes fall, as they do in this dreadful economy, and deflation hits a couple of your key categories, you’re up against it.

Comment: We have always admired Massmart for calling a spade a shovel. Keep digging.

AB InBev seems to be illustrating the maxim that bigger is not better, struggling as they are to fulfil the promise that attended the founding of the world’s biggest brewery. Part of the problem is in two of the markets where the business arose: South Africa, where SAB once enjoyed a government-sanctioned monopoly on beer sales, and the US, where Budweiser was virtually the only beer Americans drank. In the Beloved Country, volumes have declined for the business by northward of 12%, while in the US, punters have discovered the joys of more thoughtfully-brewed fare from smaller businesses. And while China seems to be enjoying the relative novelty of Budweiser, Trump’s trade war might well put an end to that, as angry consumers turn their back on all things identifiably American.

Comment: There is a seismic shift in the beer industry, where a more discerning market is encouraging smaller players to proliferate and thrive. And it’s just a matter of time before China embraces craft beer…

Meanwhile, over in the vineyards, things are not what they might be. A third of all producers now report that they are making a loss, and there are 25% fewer producers than there were ten years ago. And production for 2018 was around 1.2 million tons down on last year. Income is also way down: you need around R70,000 per hectare to make the old family farm, with its stately oaks and Cape Dutch gables profitable, and most are only managing R45,000 these days. Part of the problem is that we simply don’t pay enough for our wine. We’ve had the misfortune of touring the muddy vineyards of Virginia over in the US and you won’t believe what they shove in a bottle for $20 a pop. Unfortunately, the solution is in the problem: by 2022 there’ll be 10% less agricultural land under grapes, and at some point demand will outstrip supply.

Comment: By then, unfortunately, we’ll have lost a whole lot of smaller producers to acquisitions and bankruptcy, and wine will be going the way of beer.

China, you will probably know, is the world’s second-largest economy, and South Africa’s biggest trading partner, a position it has occupied for almost a decade. Last week at the BRICS jamboree, the Dragon announced that it would be investing some R147bn in the dear old SA economy, which could sorely use a boost like that right now. Accordingly, the ZAR ticked up against the dollar on the news, having slipped a notch or two when the US announced its +4.1% GDP growth for the year. By contrast, ours is optimistically expected to reach +2% by 2020, which has a surprising number of twos in it, but is hardly a rallying cry. And with industrial production down 6.2% for the first quarter, it seems that retail, along with other stalwarts like financial services, will once again be carrying the can for whatever growth we can expect.

Comment: We need a new constitutional assembly, but for the economy.

You think the Tatler is full of juicy tidbits? You should see our WhatsApp feed, which this week was abuzz with the rumour that erstwhile Botswanan retailer Choppies is working on a couple of acquisitions which will catapult it into the upper reaches of the industry. Can this be the Seventh Retailer of which the prophecy has spoken? Watch this space.

It ain’t easy being a curt-price German retailer these days. First you have to get permission to build your store. And if that fails, you have to build an entire community, including 3,000 homes and a primary school, to build your store in. At least that’s what Lidl have resorted to in Richmond Road, near London, where the authorities are notoriously sticky about these sorts of things. Tesco, in the meantime, are toying with launching their own discount chain. The only thing standing in their way, apparently, is the loyalty of the Brits to German outfits Aldi and Lidl. And in other news of the English, incensed shoppers have been posting pics of empty shelves in all of the majors – including Sainsbury's, Morrisons, Asda, Co-op, and Tesco – a phenomenon which may or may not be linked to Brexit.