THIS ISSUE: 22 Jun - 28 Jun
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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Massmart Daddy’s gone a hunting
Seven years ago, you may recall, Massmart relinquished a controlling interest to Walmart for the princely sum of $2.3bn, and great things were expected, with the two combining forces steamrolling the competition from Durban to Dakar, or indeed from Naboomspurit to Nairobi, or even Zeerust to (that’s enough. Ed)… where were we? Ah yes. In the intervening period, a couple of things have happened: the retail environment in SA has gotten tougher, and Walmart have not in fact gotten going, although Massmart itself has responded with commendable grit. And Walmart has become distracted by the ceaseless onslaught of Amazon and taken the necessary steps, like the acquisition of Naspers’ 11% stake in Indian online retailer Flipkart. India is seen as a market with perhaps more urgent growth imperatives than Africa, where Walmart seems inclined now to take a longer view. Massmart, in the meantime, is making strides into omnichannel, growing online sales ±47% in 2017, and planning on doubling its floor space by 2020, with the addition of 200,000m² in geographies which include Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Zambia, Mozambique and Swaziland.
Comment: Tough times for the Men in Black at the mo, but we see better days ahead. Perhaps much better.
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Dis-Chem My daddy was a gamblin’ man
Causing something of a stir among the investment mavens of Twitter last week was Dis-Chem CFO Rui Morais, who flogged 4.1million of his shares to enter something called an “off-market hedge”, which according to some commentators is tantamount to betting against the business and its other shareholders. Basically, if the stock goes below a certain point: you’re protected against the loss, but if it goes above a certain maximum: nix on the upside. It’s still Dis-Chem stock, says Morais, who points out that since he started working there 9 years ago, his entire wealth has been tied up in the business. Kinder analysts argue that through this transaction he’s bought further into the business, but is simply protecting his investment rather than betting against its fortunes.
Comment: Anyone betting against Dis-Chem in the last nine years or so would be significantly poorer today.
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Convenience – SPAR | Food Lover’s Market And then the Japanese drilled a hole in it…
SPAR’s ‘little-stores-that-could’ have been hitting it out of the park, with results described by CEO Graham O’Connor as “phenomenal”. This is why they’re intent on upping the numbers of forecourt stores – which they opened in 2013 as a JV with Shell – from 22 today to as many as 70 or 80 by the end of 2020. That, says Mr O’ C., is equivalent to nine or ten SUPERSPARS, i.e. and viz. a big freakin’ deal. And speaking of little stores and big deals, Freshstop, the FVC collab with Caltex, is going even smaller, opening a whole bunch of 40m² outlets using existing unbranded stores or disused mechanics workshops at forecourts in small towns and rural outposts around the country, where drivers yearn for the signature Freshstop offering but might not pitch up in sufficient numbers to support a larger store. Freshstop has 279 existing locations, of which three are of the dinkier variety; they anticipate having 30 open by the end of 2019, each of which should come in at a very modest R1m or less.
Comment: Globally, the small-format retail is worth $1trillion a year and climbing, so a good move by these canny businesses.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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Karan Beef Beef with the competition
A little insight into some of the numbers that put the boerie on the braai every Saturday: Karan Beef, the country’s biggest feedlot business, own how many head of cattle, yes? Incorrect. It is in fact 150,000, on four adjoining farms, not far from an abattoir and a DC also owned by Karan Beef, which the Karan’s began with only 100 cattle in 1974. The meat they produce makes up a fair whack of the 869,400 tonnes South Africa consumes every year, which compares favourably per capita with the 12 million tonnes eaten by the yanks. And now, rumour has it, patriarch Ivor Karan might be selling the business to its managers in a Public Investment Corporation-backed buyout. But that’s just a maybe, as Karan keeps its cards close to its chest. Last year, the business was investigated with some other producers by the Competition Commission for anticompetitive behaviour.
Comment: Lots going on then for Karan. Or perhaps not at all.
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Tiger Brands Desert storm
Putting its much-reported Nigerian misadventure behind it this week is Tiger Brands, which while still putting its “rest of Africa” strategy in place, is said to be considering a drive into the far north, in places like Egypt and Morocco, which offer large markets, well-developed retail sectors and a substantial middle class relative to the more conveniently located countries of sub-Saharan Africa. And while the footprint has yet to be properly mapped, the strategy for market penetration is more firmly resolved: “We are first looking at the country lens, then the category lens,” says CEO Lawrence MacDougall. “What’s the size of the category, does it play to our core business and what is our ability to win?” The idea is to launch products in new geographies from the ground up, shipping them from South Africa, and providing them with the necessary sales and marketing support.
Comment: It’s good to see South African businesses persist in growing their African markets against strong headwinds.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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Retail Trade Sales There’s always lip gloss
While SA’s big grocery retailers recorded better growth in both revenues and profits in the last quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018, the real winner was the health and beauty sector, according to a recent report by EY. Health and beauty grew revenues +7.1% with profit up +7.5%, well ahead of inflation. The former number may be due to the “lipstick index” which sees consumers spending on the little luxuries in hard times while the latter is substantially a question of margin: grocery retailers have to sell R34 worth of merchandise to make a rand, while the health and beauty crew skate by on just R25. And speaking of inflation, which we were just now, you will be pleased to be reminded that it eased just a touch, from 4.5% in April to 4.4% in May. Food inflation remained unchanged at 3.4%, while the boozehounds among us were hit hard with an +8.6% annual increase in the cost of alcoholic beverages. The rand has also firmed slightly against the dollar, and it seems that fears of a rate hike have eased.
Comment: In the damaged vessel that is the South African economy, we’re still at the pumping furiously stage. The systematic rebuilding will follow.
IN BRIEF
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International Retailer Punching down
A recent report by Oxfam focuses on the global supermarket supply chains, and how the low prices offered by supermarkets to the substantially middle-class consumers are prejudicial to the working conditions and wellbeing of the world’s poorest workers. Too much to cover here, but worth a look here if you have the time and the inclination. Ten years ago, the triple bottom line was perhaps window dressing for a lot of businesses. Now it is an increasingly urgent imperative for the sustainability of our societies and the world which supports them.
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Unilever Instafans
Social media influencers (an actual job description, apparently) can, as you know, make a tidy little living shilling product for businesses like Unilever. What you may not know is that many thousands of the followers they’re selling as their cache are in fact bought and paid for off databases. Unilever is putting paid to this practice for Unilever brands, with a pledge that it will never henceforth buy followers or work with the influencers who do. Good thing too: the monetization of cool has gone as far as it can safely go.
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