Last week we had the pleasure of being a part of Ti’s fifth annual Independent Trade Forum, where the delegates in attendance heard directly from a range of thought-leaders within the independent trade. Addressing a continuation of last year’s theme “A channel in demand”, speakers included top brass from ICC, UMS, Diplomat, The Sustainable Livelihoods Foundation and Trade Intelligence, with the highlight of the day being the powerful thought-leadership panel debate, where perspectives from a cross-section of independent channel stakeholders were laid bare. Delegates also had the opportunity to meet face-to-face with the people working at the rockface of the independent trade such as hawkers, spaza owners and shoppers at the event’s “Marketplace”, brought to life by exhibitors and sponsors Smollan, Diplomat, IMPERIAL Logistics, UMS, ClevaPay and ICC and Trade Intelligence. But let’s hand over to Maryla Masojada, MD of Trade Intelligence for the last word: “The trading environment is a tough one, and the pressure is not going to let up anytime soon. My hope is that, from this event, delegates will take home greater insights on how to extract mutual value through the alignment of their operational plans with their retail and wholesale customers. Trading tension will always remain – but those that recognise this, and see the gaps will be the winners in a tough trading context.”

Comment: Well said, we say, and see you there next year!

In a textbook example of the fallacy of the sunk cost, or the steady rectification of a strategic miscalculation (ask us again this time next year) Woolies are investing in the turnaround of their overpriced and underperforming Antipodean asset, the department store which rejoices in the sturdy Aussie name of David Jones. DJ, says Woolies, is in a transitional phase which requires investment, and this has seen Group CAPEX jump from R2.59bn in 2017 to R3.8bn in 2018, with another chunk slated for 2019. This money is going, substantially, into the refurb of a flagship store in Sydney, providing consumers with that ‘experience’ they’re demanding more of these days, and in funding the retailer’s big push into food – the latter is set to cost A$100m over three years – although they’ve also thrown a couple bob at new merchandise and finance systems. On the food front, they’re trialling three formats in a picky, picky market.

Comment: Is it going to work? Too early to tell, although we suspect the food offering is the hill on which David Jones will stand or fall.

PnP’s articulation of its strategy hasn’t changed in these four years gone by and with the recent publication of the FY2018 results, we reckon it’s a good time to take stock of how the business has progressed against this strategy, and what its short to medium term plan looks like. 1) Two phases have been tackled thus far, with a phase of stabilisation taking two years followed by a phase of growth trajectory marked by an improvement of the estate, with the rollout of next-gen stores and refurbs. 2) There has been major growth in the corporate store footprint (including Boxer), going from 643 to 928 stores in just three years, with franchise numbers rising from 433 to 630. 3) Central distribution is a key pillar of the strategy, with product volume throughput climbing from 56% to 60% in 2017 alone, and a target of an “optimal” 80%. 4) Private label is a major push, now accounting for approximately 20% of sales, with 700 new products launched in the past year alone. 5) Mr B has big plans for the Boxer brand, which now has 152 supermarkets, and is benefitting from a major investment of Brasher’s time and Pick n Pay’s money.

Comment: Pick n Pay’s ‘Rocky-like’ resurrection is one of the most thrilling stories we’re seeing in our 13 years before the trusty old Remington in the clamorous newsroom here at Tatler Towers.

Choppies, you scoffed, when we first started reporting on them oh, five years ago or more. What could we possibly want to know about a local chain from Botswana? Well Choppies, you haters and detractors, now has 88 stores in South Africa, three more than it has back home, and its turnover from SA operations was R2.7bn for the six months through December – just 7.5% shy of its Botswana turnover. And the Group has turned its first profit here in the Beloved Country – a small one, to be sure, of R3.8m, on the back of turnover increase of 42.4%, which latter figure is thanks to their acquisition of Jwayelani in KZN and stores in the North West province doing just swimmingly. Plans for the next few years include a drive into the eastern regions of our country, where previously they have concentrated their efforts in the north, as well as expansion in other neighbouring countries. With this expansion, they say, will come benefits of scale and efficiencies.

Comment: All good on the face of it then. Let’s see what the second half of the year brings.

Distell is in the midst of a long, drawn-out and arcane restructuring process, where the Competition Commission is insisting that 20% of the 26.8% the Public Investment Corporation (PIC) acquired in 2016 be sold to a BEE investor. This, say some shareholders, is an onerous requirement that puts Distell at a disadvantage vis-à-vis its larger competitors like AB InBev, Diageo, Heineken and Pernod. Distell has been working for some years now to extricate itself out of the pyramid ownership structure put in place in the days of wide lapels and apartheid back in the 70s, when it was owned by Remgro, KWV and SAB. Remgro are now the dominant shareholder, with 31.4% of the share but 56% of the votes. Having got shot of SABMiller, they may now be more eager to pursue a more acquisitive path of growth than they were when big beer was still in the boardroom.

Comment: OK, it’s all a bit much for us, we’ll leave the rest of the thinking to the sharper-eyed analysts.

British American Tobacco has plans to more than double revenue for smokeless products like biscuits and dashboard ornaments by the end of the FY. What? Are you sure? Ah yes. Typo. Should read, “has plans to more than double revenue from smokeless products like vape machines, chaw-terbaccer and snuff by the end of the FY.” Slip of the keyboard. And in the meantime, they are still growing share and sales of their more, shall we say, traditional products. This from CEO Richard Burrows, speaking through the plumes of smoke at the AGM in London last week: We are the only company growing share in all key product categories – in vapour, tobacco heating, oral tobacco and combustible cigarettes.”

Comment: If we were Big Baccy, we might be looking at a more fundamental reinvention than selling products that aren’t quite as bad for the kids. But that’s us.

SA’s consumers have put on their loudest trousers, and beaming hello’s to the neighbours have headed on down to the mall to dispose of their Cyrilbucks. Which is to say that consumer confidence, according to the venerable BER Index, has soared a record 34 points from -8 in the last quarter of 2017, a year that will live in infamy, to +26 in the first quarter of 2018, a year that will live in puppies and unicorns. This indicates, says mellifluously-named FNB Chief Economist Mamello Matikinca, that they are more optimistic about the outlook for the economy and their personal finances. And this is across the spectrum, with those earning over 14 gorillas a month 31 points worth of happy, and those who earn R3,000 a month as happy as they were in 1995. And lest we think it’s all pie in the sky, don’t forget those retail trade sales, which ticked up unexpectedly a couple weeks back to 4.9%.

Comment: Look, we have the VAT increase, rising fuel prices and looming inflation to worry about down the line. But right now, we’ll take the good news, gladly.

In the UK punters have been both flabbergasted and thunderstruck, according to their preferences, but news of a possible merger between Asda and the slightly posher Sainsbury’s, in a move that would create a £10bn headache for Tesco, and leave Asda owner Walmart to pursue its battles against Amazon elsewhere. Still, there’s many a slip ‘twixt the cup and the lip, and the competition watchdog of course. In the US, meanwhile Walmart is doing a deal with Mr Delivery knock-off DoorDash to expedite its home delivery service, and in Bangalore, India, also meanwhile, is about to close a deal for the acquisition of a majority stake in Flipkart, India’s leading e-commerce company, for a sum of at least $12bn. And that, readers, is a wrap.