
THIS ISSUE: 08 Mar - 15 Mar
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
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Devland Cash & Carry Concern for kidnapped industry colleague
At time of going to press, Shiraaz Gattoo – the owner of Devland Cash & Carry, who was kidnapped over the weekend – had not yet been located. Our thoughts and support go out to his family, friends and colleagues at this time, and we pray for his safe and speedy return.
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International Retailers Track-tion
Carrefour has recently launched a blockchain-based food traceability programme, which is currently tracking some chicken products in the supply chain, and will soon be extended to eight other product lines. On the other side of the English channel, Tesco and Morrisons have been found by Kantar Worldpanel to be the UK’s fastest-growing grocers, each growing sales +2.7% in the 12 weeks to 25 February. Aldi, however, is now the UK’s favourite supermarket according to a Which? Survey, which cited its special offers and the quality of its fresh and own-label products as factors catapulting it to the top.
Comment: Bring on blockchain. Its applications are huge, and we’re still fully trying to wrap our head around it, but transparency and traceability sound good to us right now, so we’ll take it.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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Sea Harvest Plain sailing
The Sea Harvest results for the year through December just hove into view, hearties, and shiver our timbers if they aren’t as shipshape a set of numbers as any bosun could wish for! Sales up +10% to R2.13bn, which is all well and good, but profit after tax more than doubled to R276m, driven thither in part by the April 2017 listing, and a reduction in interest payments on loans subsequently settled. Having spent R369m on investments, including an additional factory freezer ship and an upgrade on the Saldanha plant, Sea Harvest has already started to see the upside, particularly in the lucrative market for hake exports. CEO Felix Ratheb is upbeat about the prospects for the current FY, pointing to cost-cutting at Aussie acquisition Mareterram, ongoing global demand for Cape hake and the impending and potentially transformational acquisition of Viking Fishing back home.
Comment: Excellent work from a great South African business with both aspirations and a plan.
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Aspen Pharmacare The milk of human kindness
That was a heck of a year that Aspen had, wasn’t it? They began it by being lumped in the same basket as millennial-from-hell Martin Shkreli, and ended it tarred with the same brush as Steinhoff. The latter – prompted by speculation that Aspen was soon to be, like Steinhoff, the subject of a Viceroy investigation – saw the share price fall to its lowest level in two years. If the latest interims are anything to go by the worst of the annus horribilis may now be behind Aspen: revenue up +11% to R21.9bn, with operating profit up +13% to R5.1bn. Commercial pharmaceuticals contributed 80% to the take, growing sales +19%, of which 7% was organic. There is, however, still the matter of the EU’s investigations into excess pricing on five cancer drugs across that geography. In other Aspen news, the company may soon be expanding its infant-milk business into Saudi Arabia.
Comment: Great businesses learn from their mistakes and respond with both alacrity and humility. 2018 is the year for Aspen to entrench once more the values on which it was built.
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Clover Rich and creamy
Interims for the six months to December see Clover Industries rebounding from the disappointing performance of the previous year, with revenue up +7.7% to R4.2bn and operating profit increasing by +14.8% to R370m. This in the midst of a realignment which has already seen the commodities division unbundled into the newly-established Dairy Farmers SA (DFSA) and the rationalising of product lines, which will allow the business to diversify into more lucrative added-value lines. It hasn’t all been plain sailing however: cooler and rainier weather in some parts of the Republic have hit volumes, and December sales weren’t all that either. Back to the upside, the rollout of new product lines and some relaunches has allowed the company to save handsomely on sugar and other ingredients, and these savings have been invested in pricing on some products, improving volumes by +8% overall.
Comment: Clover is not averse to bold and timely reinvention from time to time – and this seems one of those times.
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Tiger Brands In the name of the law
Human rights lawyer Richard Spoor is launching a class action lawsuit against Tiger Brands on behalf of people affected by the outbreak and of the families of those who have who died. The source of the current outbreak – the worst in history – has been shown by health officials to be an Enterprise Food plant, owned by Tiger Brands, in Limpopo. Spoor has represented miners and their families against gold producers over the lung disease silicosis, securing R5bn in provisions for the victims. But back to listeriosis: The industry response to the crisis has been patchy: while Tiger Brands and RCL FOODS were swift in their shuttering of the affected plants, and while all major retailers have cleared their shelves of at-risk product, smaller retailers in some areas have not exhibited the same degree of urgency. Tiger Brands chief executive Lawrence MacDougall told local media last week that Tiger would “have to deal with (litigation) when we get to it, right now our focus is on food safety." Tiger has been criticised for its messaging on the crisis as it has struggled to find a line between sympathy for the victims and an admission of legal culpability.
Comment: The listeriosis outbreak has thrown into stark relief South Africa’s central and endemic crisis: that of widespread poverty, which leads people – and some businesses – to choices they would not otherwise make.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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Growth On the up?
Last year, agricultural output grew +17.7%, assisted thither, says the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) by strong output in sub-sectors which include field crops, livestock and horticulture. Quarter-on quarter, it was even more impressive, at +37.5% for the fourth quarter, way ahead of Agbiz’s predictions of 20%. And exports punched through the $10bn mark for the first time, rising +15% year-on-year with strong performances in fruits, beverages, spirits, and vegetables. And spirit vegetables. Moving on to the rest of the economy, we reported last week that GDP grew no less than 3.1% for the final quarter, and a better than expected 1.3% for the year. Now – wait for it – it turns out that we were never in a recession last year at all! This after a revision to 2016’s final quarter. And speaking of revisions, given our stronger than expected economy, rookie Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene has said that we may have to revise next year’s projected number of +1.5% up just a tad, in the expectations of better days to come.
Comment: This is all a bit vague to be honest. And we’ll breathe a modest sigh of relief when the economy starts growing ahead of the population (at +1.6% year on year). But right now, we’ll take whatever we can get.
IN BRIEF
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AVI AVI nuther one, get it?
Anglovaal Industries Limited turned in a solid set of interims in a challenging environment, with revenue up +2.3% to R7.30bn, with net profit up +7.6% to R1.06bn and HEPS growing +7.5%. The food and beverage brands, housed within Entyce Beverages, Snackworks and I&J performed a touch better, with operating profit up +8.9% to R1.05bn. "We will continue to react quickly to market changes as we pursue the most appropriate balance of price, sales volumes and profit margins for each of our brands," they said, in the plummy tones of one enjoying an after dinner snifter at the Illovo Club, circa 1957.
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Unilever Faceoff
Unilever is trialling facial recognition technology in Brazil in order to measure shoppers’ engagement with on-shelf displays and gather more detailed analytics about the physical retail environment. Sound a bit too big-brotherish for comfort? Relax! Shoppers’ images were not recorded in order to preserve their privacy.