THIS ISSUE: 23 Feb - 01 Mar
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
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Massmart Natty
Results from the business which for time immemorial we have been calling the Men in Black, we’re not sure why. Perhaps it was because they always struck us as sharp-suited and serious of purpose, and were given to wearing predatory sunglasses, who knows. We digress. The real story here is that the Massmart results (as documented here by Trade Intelligence) tell the story of a retailer consolidating its position and doing its darndest to extract efficiencies. But more on that later. Looking at the numbers, group sales for the 53 weeks through December were up +2.7% to R94bn, with operating profit (before interest) down -0.9% to R2.49bn compared to the last year’s 52 weeks. Total expenses were up just +1.2% for the period, and down in comparable terms to the tune of -1.3%, while online sales ramped up a massive +47%. Africa is also looking promising – while stores on the continent grew at +3.5%, they’re outperforming competitors by a factor of four, and the plan is to grow retail space by +36% in the next three years
Comment: Consolidation has been a long time coming for Massmart. A healthy business is good for the shareholders, good for its people and indeed our country. But often the price of consolidation also has a human face. Our hope is that those making the calls may find ways to mitigate these costs too.
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Woolworths Down, under
There was a time when Woolies results were something to be looked forward to with mild but pleasurable anticipation, like birthdays after a certain age, or Father’s Day. With the troubles down under, this is not currently the case. For the 26 weeks through to 24 December, The Dapper One grew turnover just +2.5% to R38.8bn year on year, with adjusted profit before tax falling by -8.8% to R3bn. At issue was the well-documented difficulty of getting the overpriced David Jones acquisition to start paying for itself pronto, and challenges with clothing back home, particularly in womenswear. Plans are underfoot to fix both. On the upside, food grew +9.4% with comparable sales up +5.3%. Woolies believe that trading will continue tough for the next six months then should tick upwards as the Cyril effect kicks in. And if you want to know a bit more, click here for Trade Intelligence’s at-a-glance view of it all.
Comment: No one does food for the well-heeled punter better than Woolies, although the likes of Checkers and PnP are nipping at their heels. But the Group’s clothing offering is a little in disarray at the moment in highly contested territory. One wonders if a growing focus on the former is not the way to go.
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Shoprite (I) Pack up your troubles
It’s been an anxious year for Shoprite, what with the precipitous resignation of its iconic boss and the implosion of a business with which it came close to being more closely related than would have been healthy. Never mind though: they’ve turned in a tidy set of interims, with turnover growing +6.3% to R75.8bn and operating profit up +11.3% to R4.1bn, despite a growth in expenses of +9.3%. Shoprite’s SA supers were responsible for most of the sales, at 81%, and sales outside of SA declined by -0.4%, losing a little share of the total too. For more on these, have a look at the Trade Intelligence crisp little summary here.
Comment: Let’s leave the final word to them then … Mr Engelbrecht? “This is a fantastic set of results … if you unpack the numbers, given the rate of deflation, it was an extraordinary performance.
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Shoprite (II) Measuring success
Look, we like to report the good news every now and then, those small acts of kindness the PR people like to pop in your inbox in the hopes that it will be splashed all over the front page of next week’s Tatler. But our retailers are a busy bunch on the CSI front, and we can’t always. This week’s different though: Shoprite’s water meter challenge is not just noteworthy but topical. One hundred and ten schools have signed up, and collectively they’ve saved 21million litres of water worth around R1.1m since November. The initiative, you will recall, involves the installation of smart water meters that measure and report on water use by the minute. It also includes plumbing maintenance and interventions to affect behavioural change among learners and their teachers. Shoprite committed themselves to the first hundred meters then threw down the gauntlet to the corporate world; 82 other businesses promised that they’d install a further 260 metres.
Comment: Those are some big numbers, do the math. Oh, alright, let’s see – carry the ten, round it off, that’s about 70million litres, worth R3.7m give or take. Excellent work, Shoprite and friends.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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Tiger Brands Earning their Stripes
In something of a bellwether for where we’re at economically, Tiger Brands posted a worrying set of numbers this week, with revenue falling -5% year on year for the four months to January, as selling prices fell -1% and volumes down -4%. Tiger? “Trading during the first four months of the financial year was characterised by intense competition in a low-growth, value-driven consumer environment,” they say, and few businesses would argue with that. And as lower demand reduced sales here at home, the stronger rand impacted on the export business. On the upside – and it’s a slim one – gross margins were improved by the strength of the rand and by lower impact costs. However, say Tiger, this difficult start to the year is going to make itself felt all the way through 2018.
Comment: Tiger, like most of our great businesses, will pull through this difficult time. And when robust growth returns, they will be all the stronger for it.
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Adcock Ingram Strong medicine
So not too shabby eh Nige from the poshly-monikered Adcock Ingram, who turned in a surprisingly good set of results just last week: turnover up +7.4% to R3.2bn, with trading profit up +25% to R428m. How on earth did they manage that, you ask, agog. Simple really: “Through a focused and dedicated approach by each of the business units,” according to CEO Andy Hall. The dark lining in their silver cloud was the single exit price by which they are compelled to flog their wares in pharmacies: this year’s increase was just +1.26%. Where is the growth going to come from? They’re considering exports to Asia-Pacific and South America in addition to their more immediate plans in Africa, which currently accounts for a total of 7% of sales.
Comment: Not so long ago, Adcock seemed back footed by the rapid rise of rival Aspen. Now, it seems, they are taking a leaf from the Aspen playbook.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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VAT A barrel of laughs
So the VAT increase is upon us – 1%, according to the incoming Minster of Home Affairs, but actually, some remind us, 7% if you measure it against the existing 14%. How does our great industry feel about this? Not happy. For starters, the increase affects every supplier list price and every sell price on shelf – a massive administrative undertaking between now and the 1st of April, and one that will play merry hell with everyone’s plans for Easter promotions. Some retailers are more sanguine – Woolies and Massmart, for example, believe that the economic growth set in motion by new leadership and new policies will quickly balance any reduction. Unfortunately, South Africa’s poor do not have the luxury of thinking about the cost of food in the medium term.
Comment: The parlous state of South Africa’s fiscus will continue to haunt us for years after the culprits have been forgotten.
IN BRIEF
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International Retailers Rise of the machines
Amazon – clever, clever Amazon – are opening up another six of their staffless stores, where one day, perhaps, algorithms will be able to shop for whatever it is that sustains them. Human tears, we presume. And Walmart, similarly inspired, are making an even bigger push into e-commerce in order to get online sales growth back up to 40%. In the UK, Tesco have become the first retailer to lay the gender wage gap bare to public scrutiny. Finally, this year Asda will, for the first time, be serving up something known as The Cheester Egg. Believe us, you do not want to know.
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Agriculture Haute cuisine
Green Sky Rooftop Farm on the top of Stannop House in Doornfontein is a new form of agriculture – that is taking unused urban space and through a combination of hydroponics and hard work turning it into food, specifically lettuce and basil, and selling it to clients, which include restaurants and farmers’ markets in the city of Johannesburg. The farm is run by Mapaseka Dlamini who was given a leg up by business incubator Wouldn't It Be Cool (WiBC) and speaks volumes about the healthy living and ethical business trends identified here by Trade Intelligence.
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IMPERIAL Logistics Wheels within wheels
IMPERIAL Logistics will be ready to make their decision about unbundling their logistics and vehicle businesses sometime in the middle of the year, there being a number of internal and external factors to consider. This according to Don Marco (Mark) Lamberti, who is characteristically bullish about the prospects for each should the split go ahead, and about the prospects for South Africa generally under its new leadership. He believes that a new era of regulatory certainty will make it easier for businesses to make investment decisions. Exciting times.
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