THIS ISSUE: 29 Jun - 06 Jul
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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Woolworths Don’t label me, man
“Sourcing sustainable commodities is a key part of the Woolworths Good Business Journey 2020 goals,” said Tom McLaughlin, Responsible Sourcing, Woolworths Foods. (a) We didn’t know that was a job title, so good one there Woolies, and (b) we didn’t know that Woolies were so far along their Good Business Journey that even the materials for labelling had come under consideration. Even better. Basically, packaging materials supplier Avery Dennison will provide FSC (Forest Stewardship Council) certified materials to Woolies’ supply chain partners Rotolabel, which will convert them into labels customised to Woolworths’ requirements. “This collaboration is the first of its kind in South Africa,” said Mark Ellis, Commercial Director for Avery Dennison Label and Graphic Materials in sub-Saharan Africa. “It demonstrates that sustainability can be integrated into almost every level in the label value chain – from procuring materials, manufacturing to retail.”
Comment: A seemingly small but highly significant step on the Journey.
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Carrefour French revolution
After several years of humming and hawing in its inimitable Gallic way, Carrefour appears ready to enter the turbid waters of retailing in sub-Saharan Africa. It intimated as much at a strategic presentation, when it revealed that its ambition was to expand into the region, including one day, perhaps South Africa – although in this latter regard, it must be emphasised, there are no immediate plans. So far the French giant has 331 stores on the continent, including a hyper in Abidjan, and has rights to open in seven other countries, through its franchise partner Majid Al Futtaim. It also opened a store last year in Nairobi, Kenya, which is one of Africa’s fastest-growing retail markets. Speak to an analyst, and they’ll probably tell you that Carrefour is likely to be interested in less-developed markets.
Comment: It will be interesting to see how Carrefour shapes up against more established players in these parts – notably Shoprite with its African infrastructure and multi-country, multi-city experience.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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Coca-Cola Have they got the bottle?
Amid this talk of White Monopoly Capital and the like, it is easy to forget that there exists in South Africa both the commitment and the institutions to right past inequities. One such institution is the Competition Commission, among whose tasks is the prevention of the emergence or continued existence of monopolies, white or not. This week, the Commission and Coca-Cola Beverages Africa (CCBA) agreed that Coke would increase its BEE holding from 20% to 30% by no later than 2021, and that this holding would include “an appropriate level of worker-employee ownership”. Another such institution is the Ministry of Economic Development, to whom CCBA has committed to maintaining its head office in the Beloved Country, where it benefits from our deep capital markets, sophisticated business infrastructure and extensive local talent. CCBA is considering players both foreign and local for the disposal of a controlling stake in the business worth an estimated $3.15billion.
Comment: Excellent – even groundbreaking – stuff from government and business alike.
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Nestlé A word to the wise
International news with likely local repercussions, from Switzerland, where activist investor Dan Loeb has acquired a $3.5billion stake in Nestlé through his hedge fund, Third Point. Loeb is encouraging various changes at the food giant, including the adoption of formal profitability targets, the disposal of its stake in L’Oréal and a buyback of shares. Clearly, Nestlé are taking these ideas seriously: a $21million buyback has already commenced and will run through 2020, marking a reversal of a policy which has seen no buybacks for a couple of years and a focus on dividends and reinvestment in the business. The purchase may be perceived to put pressure on new CEO Mark Schneider, although it could equally be argued that it advances his strategic agenda which shifts the company’s priorities toward healthier foods and faster-growing businesses.
Comment: Interesting times, not just for Nestlé itself but for other players in its space. Although there’s no guarantee that Loeb’s strategy will outperform the one already in place.
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Astral Walking on eggshells
About 500,000 chickens, both broilers and layers, will be killed by various methods, including gas, to halt the spread of bird flu on two Mpumalanga farms – one belonging to Astral Foods and the other to an as-yet unidentified concern. This marks the biggest cull ever undertaken in South Africa. Efforts to contain this threat to the industry have been complicated by social media panic and fake news, which has the epidemic spreading to KZN – a story refuted by the South African Poultry Association. Typically for our chicken-mad country, news of the outbreak has not affected sales, although restrictions will apply until local vets declare that the threat has passed. If the epidemic spreads however, local supply is likely to become depressed – a situation exacerbated by reduced imports resulting from an outbreak in Europe.
Comment: A delicate and worrying moment for the local poultry industry, which as extensively reported in these pages has quite enough to worry about already.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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The Economy The nuclear option
Swings and roundabouts, eh. On the one hand, our trade surplus – the index measuring exports against imports – has grown to R9.5billion in May 2017‚ with exports up 5.8% and imports 10.9% year on year. And it’s substantially up from April’s R4.97billion, although the surplus itself is down from the R13.1billion recorded in May 2016. On the other hand, ratings agency Fitch have downgraded our growth outlook to 0.7% from its previous forecast of 1%, warning that investing in expensive, Gupta-enriching, Putin-courting nuclear power plants would put further strain on our already embattled fiscus. The Government, however, remains fairly sanguine, predicting growth of 1.3% this year, 2% next year and 2.2% in 2019.
Comment: On the upside, further Gupta marriages could provide a welcome shot in the arm for local florists, catering businesses and Free State B&Bs.
IN BRIEF
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US Retail Storemageddon
We’ve already explained in these pages what a bellwether is, so when we say US Retail is a bellwether for what happens elsewhere, you’ll know what we mean. And in the US, malls and stores are closing hand over fist under the onslaught of online – 8,600 stores are expected to close this year (up from just 6,100 in 2008), and if further proof were needed of the trend, social media is full of selfies of smart Alecs and Alexa’s in “ghost malls”. We’re not saying it’s going to happen here, but the forces that are causing it are in play globally. Perhaps it was sensing the coming retailpocalypse that Warren Buffett offloaded $900million of Walmart stock in February this year. But there’s hope, ironically in the form of Amazon, with the recent acquisition of Whole Foods. Stay tuned…
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Aspen Pharmacare Strong medicine
In Europe’s first-ever antitrust probe into excessive drug pricing, Aspen Pharmacare could be fined up to 10% of its global turnover, or around R3.7billion. This is freaking the industry out over there, with concerns that the probe could lead to the adoption of a set of fixed principles that may not be easily adapted to the more fluid demands of the industry and the patients it (nominally at least) serves.
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