
THIS ISSUE: 26 Jan - 02 Feb
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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e-commerce “The future is here. It’s just not widely distributed yet.”*
The assault on bricks and mortar retail by online has become an uneasy - in some instances a happy - truce, with traditional retail taking a leaf out of the online book here (Walmart, Woolworths), and an online retailer experimenting with traditional formats there (Alibaba). its not all rosy however. So, noting that the poor performance in clothing and general merchandise over the festive season suggests that punters are going elsewhere for their toy drones and turkey basters, our friends over at Bizcommunity suggests some strategies which retailers can engage to keep their shoppers back, while taking a leaf out of the online books here’s our riff on that:Experience: Do what you do best: bright lights, big smiles and goodies from the marley tiles right up to the roof.Convenience: You want it now, you have to go to an actual store to get it, none of this anxiously checking the porch every ten minutes for a week.Integration: Use apps to turn your store into as futuristic blend of the real and the virtual. Augment the heck out of that reality, people!Personalization: Use Big data to address your shoppers directly. We’re talking to you, Mrs Lucille van Tonder in Aisle 3. How were the shrimp last Tuesday? We’ve got a lovely special for you on calamari!But if you want to see for yourself, have a look over here.*With respect for William GibsonComment: A little more detailed and erudite, wasn’t it?
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Deloitte. “A new power is rising!”*
Deloitte’s majestically-named Global Powers of Retailing survey is out, and as usual the top five are something of a whitewash, or rather a red white and blue wash, with Walmart, Costco, Kroger and Walgreens dominating the top five slots, the US being even more egregiously – even monopolistically – consolidated than we are. But what’s this? Steinhoff have jumped from 101st in turnover to 72nd with Shoprite in 110th. Their combined turnover would have put them in 46th spot this year, let’s set that as our benchmark for the merged entities’ performance. Pick n Pay sadly lost some ground this year, dropping 10 places to 171st. Woolies also lost 10 places, finishing 197th, but SPAR steamed home with the field, climbing 35 spots to 155th place. Africa/Middle East was the big regional performer this year, cranking out 19.1% growth rate with a net profit margin of 5.8%. “The rising middle class in Africa has contributed to the modernisation of the retailing sector, and many African economies are transitioning toward consumption-driven markets,” Deloitte note with approval.
*With apologies to Saruman the WhiteComment: As Africa grows, those of our businesses which have found a home on the rest of the continent will too – taking the South African economy with them.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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AVI “You can never have too many pairs of shoes.”*
Anglovaal Industries (spoken in the plummy tones of one in the smoking room at the Illovo Club, we don’t know why, the name just has an old Johannesburg feel to it) released a surprisingly good trading update just a couple of days ago, with revenue expected to rise 11.6% for the six months through December, and HEPS up 9%. Snackworks and Entyce performed handsomely, with operating profit in those divisions rising even as the drought drove grain prices up. And I&J also grew sales despite the three-week strike in August. Spitz also up, with the whole AVI portfolio of 50 brands benefitting from its tight internal disciplines which deliver economies of scale across the board (or given the business’ diversity, smorgasbord). And the first few months of 2017 are shaping up pretty nicely too, with a stronger rand and lower input costs providing steady tailwinds, and the punters already on board, with the share price jumping 3% on these glad tidings.
*In agreement with Carrie BradshawComment: A quietly and reliably great South African business.
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Poultry “The Chickens Are Restless”*
So the poultry industry has finally had enough and is not going to take it anymore. By the time you are enjoying this Tatler over your second cup of coffee, or if an AVI shareholder, snifter of brandy, bosses and workers alike from some of South Africa’s biggest producers will be marching upon the offices of the EU in Pretoria to protest the destruction of the local industry at the hands of those countries dumping chicken pieces on the market. Trade and Industry recently slapped a 13.9% tariff on imported legs, the local industry believes 37% would be a nice, round number and the EU and local importers want it scrapped under the free trade agreement that’s currently in place. Management of Rainbow, Astral, Country Bird and Sovereign Foods will be marching shoulder to shoulder under the banner of, wait for it, FAWU, and it is fondly to be hoped that they will all be wearing chicken hats, inspired by the recent headwear in Washington DC.
*With acknowledgements to Gary LarsonComment: Excellent work. French farmers would have been burning their tractors on the Champs Élysées by now.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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Inflation “The modern mind is in complete disarray.”*
Every four years, StatsSA’s hoary sages scratch their grizzled pates and try to work out what symbols of creeping modernity should be allowed into the CPI basket used to measure inflation, and which vestiges of a simpler more wholesome time should be turfed out. In this year: frozen pizzas, coffee mugs, soccer balls, video games and pay TV subscriptions. Out: Marmite, teapots, postage stamps and tennis balls. Of more serious note is the fact that food as a category is going to be given a more generous weighting, moving up to 17.24% from 15.41%, in keeping with the results of a survey of household income and expenditure, and as a result of the increase in food costs over the past 12 months. Transport, on the other hand, has dropped from 16.43% to 14.28%. Within the food category, meat, the largest item, has increased its weighting from 4.5% to 5.46%, again in keeping with price increases. The foods in the basket have also changed qualitatively, with a shift to convenience items like instant noodles and ready-mix flours.
*With sympathy for Albert CamusComment: The kids today, with their video games and their ready-mix flours.
IN BRIEF
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AB InBev “Kiss my axe!”*
The Competition Commission (“The Comish”) have come out swinging at the AB InBev-SABMiller merger, disallowing the merged entity from retrenching a single person on South African soil as a result of the deal. This has forced SAB to offer its entire cohort of middle-and upper-level managers a very nice severance package, and over at CCBSA, which is being sold back to Coke by SAB, they are having to do some pretty fancy footwork too. More on this as it develops.
*With deference to Gimli -
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Sovereign Foods “I just want to conquer people and their souls.”*
Sovereign Foods and Country Bird are still scrapping it out over who gets to own whom. Sovereign reckon Country Bird haven’t got a hope at the price; Country Bird reckon they’re in with a big chance. “You again,” say a weary Takeover Regulation Panel’s special committee at the Competition Commission.
*In mortal terror of Mike Tyson

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