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THIS ISSUE: 19 Jan - 25 Jan
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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Massmart Masster class
Oho, what do we have here? A sales update from Massmart, it would seem. Kind of so-so, but in these straitened times that’s just a couple of notches down from a howling success. Sales were up 7.7% to R91.3bn in the 52 weeks to December 25, ahead of product inflation of 6.7%, but down from market expectations, and from last year’s performance (growth of 8.4% against product inflation of 3%). Masswarehouse – that’s Makro to you and I – grew fastest, at 11%, while Masscash (Cambridge, Jumbo etc.) grew at 7.5%, although this was beaten down by internal inflation of 9.3%. Massdiscounters (Game, DionWired) came in at 5.3%, while Massbuild somewhat disappointingly trundled home at 5.6%. While there was an uptick in sales at home, they declined elsewhere, vindicating the decision to take it easy in Africa.
Comment: A business on solid footing but not somehow achieving the results of which we sense it is capable.
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Shoprite Just a spoonful of Whitey
The Shoprite interims, then, for the six months through December, telling a story somewhat sunnier than that of Massmart, with South African sales up 10.7%, and like-store sales a still-respectable 7.4% with internal inflation running at exactly that also. Sales as you know have been clobbered by high inflation, which hit 6.8% in December and by rising food prices which soared during our worst drought since 1904. Beyond our borders, different story: sales were up 32.2%, or 14.2% on a like-store basis, against a backdrop of forex shortages and a commodity bust on our perennially-promising continent. Counter-intuitively, furniture sales, which may have been expected to decline as food prices rose, grew a handsome 10% for the period.
Comment: Shoprite results, while still very respectable, just aren’t the same without the wit and wisdom of Whitey to help them go down.
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Retailers Unirite? Picklever?
Brangelina. TomKat. Bennifer. Even, for a brief instant, Tiddleswift. The list of portmanteaux is long. And to it, we now add Refacturers, or Manutailers, whichever you’d prefer. Because this is the future: Retailers integrating vertically to not just market but manufacture their own private label, and Manufacturers (surreptitiously, so as not to annoy the retailers) exploring their own channels. An example of the latter (perhaps, and don’t tell anyone) might be RCL FOODS, which is exploring online in order to get its goodies direct to your door. And what do we think about it all? Let’s hand over to our fearless leader Maryla Masojada, quoted thusly in the Business Day, ahem: "Private label is becoming an increasingly high priority for retailers who, in many cases, are supporting their own products on the shelves because it makes them more margin and differentiates them from their competitors."
Comment: We’re kind of running out of headspace for the number of disruptions and revolutions we’re living through here.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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IMPERIAL Logistics Drive and determination
Continuing the expansion of IMPERIAL Logistics under Mark Lamberti, the supply chain and logistics giant has opened up shop in Ghana, partnering with local crew LMI Holdings to form a new business, IMPERIAL LMI Logistics. IMPERIAL LMI will provide logistics services in Ghana and the rest of West Africa, using LMI’s new 93,000m2 warehouse to provide clients storage with access to the port of Tema, gateway to West Africa. Rather cunningly, the new business will not procure any assets of its own, in order to remain nimble and light on the ground, using IMPERIAL’s systems, technology and skills to unlock the potential of LMI’s infrastructure, including warehouses and vehicles. It will also offer training to LMI staff, including back here in the Beloved C., to enable them to take up senior positions in the new business.
Comment: Just superb. We were seriously excited when Don Marco took the wheel, and it’s been one heck of a ride so far.
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Premier Fishing She sells sea shells etc.
In very good news for unattractive, endangered and pretty much inedible crustacea, at least those living free in the teeming seas of the Cape, Premier Fishing’s abalone farming outfit, Abagold is doing really well. According to its annual report, the unlisted unit raked in revenues of R40million in the 2016 FY, with an operating margin of 32.5%. The unit is likely to at least double production in the next five-odd years, together with economies of scale, efficiencies and the opening of new markets in the East, and this could see it hitting operating profits of up to R70million in the medium term. Great news for Premier Fishing shareholders, who already have reason to rejoice, with the business’ pelagic operations growing revenue from R56m to R94m since 2014, with a 35% operating margin.
Comment: ABBA Gold was our favourite album for a while there back in Standard Five.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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Retail Trade Sales The Black Sorrows
A pleasant surprise in the numbers this week, as retail trade sales for November stormed home with an unexpected 3.8% increase after October’s equally surprising 0.2% decrease. Economists who surprisingly kept their jobs despite being wrong for about 400 years in a row, were expecting anything from a 0.3% decrease to a 0.5% increase. The big earners were retailers in hardware, paint and glass up 5.4%, followed by retailers in pharmaceuticals and medical goods, cosmetics and toiletries, which grew by 4.9%. Some are predicting disappointing results for December, with inflation running at 6.8%, and consumers somewhat shell-shocked after their unaccustomed profligacy at the Black Friday sales.
Comment: Black Friday is best left to the Americans who have been doing it since prices were slashed on shoe buckles after the first Thanksgiving.
IN BRIEF
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SABMiller Only here for the beer
Deutsche Bank is sceptical about the prospects of the merged SAB/AB InBev on this great continent we call home. What remains of SABMiller after selloffs to appease the competition authorities, you see, has higher margins than AB InBev itself, calling into question the latter’s ability to achieve the synergies the shareholders were promised. Deutsche, to their credit, also call into question the organisation of Africa as a single market. “Despite contrary multiple pronouncements by the company, Africa is not Brazil, nor Mexico. It’s a continent, not a country,” they observe sagely.
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Crookes Brothers By hook or by … oh, shut up.
The Crookes Brothers, who own about half of the verdant cane lands and fecund banana fields of KZN, as well as a substantial slab of Mozambique may well be an attractive target for acquisition by Associated British Foods, just to throw a name out there, according to certain canny analysts, who point to the shareholding in Crookes of UK private equity crew SilverStreet Capital as a precursor to takeover by someone with a greater particular interest in this great sector we call home.
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