
THIS ISSUE: 12 Jan - 18 Jan
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
-
Woolworths Stirred, not shaken
A toughish week for the Dapper One, which released a trading update on Thursday to the effect that its headline earnings were likely to drop by up to 7.5% for the six months through December. This some analysts are attributing in part to a poorer than expected performance by the newly-acquired Australian assets – Country Road’s sales, for example, were 0.9% down on last year’s – and by declining volumes in both food and clothing as even SA’s posher punters experience the squeeze of a struggling economy. The irony of Woolworths’ position is that as a business that is already extremely well-run, it has little wiggle room in which to improve its performance. In other Woolies news, it has once again fallen prey to the pitchfork-wielders of social media, which have pursued it to the castle, angrily demanding that it drop its new, biliously-coloured returnable plastic egg trays in favour of the drab old compostable ones.
Comment: Ever the lighting-rod for public opinion, and this week also a bellwether for the embattled global economy (what’s one of them? Ed), it’s not easy being Woolies right now.
-
-
Massmart All in good time
Back in the days when Shoprite was painting the continent red, opening African stores hand over fist and watching its share price jump 551% in a decade, Massmart investors were agitating for the Men in Black to do the same. Where Shoprite derives 17% of its revenue from beyond our borders, Massmart takes only 9%. On the one hand, however, Massmart was preoccupied first with negotiating and then bedding down the Wakro deal. On the other, they simply adopted a more wait and see approach. And as the commodity economies to the north flounder in the face of fluctuating demand and currency volatility, and the red tape shows no sign of dissipating, this look increasingly like a canny move. The chief vehicle for Massmart’s cautious expansion on the continent has been Game, which has picked up a wealth of experience it is positioned to share with the rest of the Group, notably Builders Warehouse, whose product offering is in high demand on the continent. Sales in just three African countries exceed R1billion, although there are currently concrete plans for just one store in the near future. “But that doesn’t mean we aren’t in 20 discussions," says Mr Hayward, cryptically.
Comment: As Shoprite and Massmart compete tangentially rather than head on, there is less urgency to rush the approach.
-
-
SPAR The great, green, greasy Limpopo River
SPAR Zimbabwe Ltd has only been heading the Zimbabwean business for a year – the owners were granted the license by SPAR International last January – and it’s looking forward to a cracker of a 2017. Currently, SPAR Zimbabwe itself operates 10 stores, with another 21 owned 100% by Zimbabweans according to the usual model – up from a total of 6 they inherited from the previous licence holders. They’re all served by the Harare DC, and kindly supported by SPAR SA, which provides the goodies it’s still difficult to find in that creaky basket of frustrated potential up north. Increasingly, though, even the private label stuff is being produced by local suppliers. And the plans for 2017? Well they’re being a little cagy, to be honest, but they’re keen to bring more existing independents into the fold, according to MD Terrence Yeatman.
Comment: A typically canny and community-minded strategy for this wonderful retailer. The role of the SA business is a particularly nice touch.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
-
Tiger Brands Earning their stripes?
Not something we do very often, money not being something that is discussed in our family, but what the heck eh? Of note in the recent Tiger Brands annual report was some detail about what the boys, and indeed ladies, in the corner offices raked in during the year in question. First up, new CEO Lawrence MacDougall, who snaffled a sign-on bonus of R20million, plus another ±R3.8million in the five-odd months through September, with a cash salary of ±R3.053million, a bonus of R513,000 and retirement and other benefits of R216,000. Outgoing CEO Peter Matlare wandered off with ±R8.7million in his back sky, comprising a ±R1.2million cash salary, R786,000 in share options exercised, R209,000 in retirement fund contributions and ±R6.5million in “other benefits”. CFO and onetime pretender to the throne Noel Doyle was paid a princely total of ±R16.5million, R10million of which was a retention bonus.
Comment: On that note, we resign. Anyone? Anyone at all?.
-
-
Supply Chain Unchained melody
Those big supply chain trends in anticipation of which you have been pacing nervously and checking the mailbox every five minutes? Pace no more, here they are, courtesy of Kate Stubbs and our friends over at BizCommunity: Firstly, as the globalised world moves into a more uncertain ambit, businesses are going to be going back to manufacturing their products closer to their customer base, thus avoiding any unpleasantness in the South China Sea or the Straits of Hormuz. They’re also going to be using the vast swaths of data at their disposal to work more efficiently, holding less stock and manufacturing stuff closer to the time it will actually be required. This is going to lead to shorter and more agile supply chains. Secondly, collaboration between trading partners and their logistics providers, as well as outsourcing to niche players where appropriate, will bring down costs and reduce risk. And all of this suggests that logistics businesses which see their clients’ business as their own will be the ones to watch.
Comment: That last point seems like something of a stretch to be honest, but the rest is top-notch stuff.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
-
IOL Economical with the truth
OK this is according to economists, so take it whence it comes, but word on the street is that the dear old South African economy is due for something of a cyclical uptick in 2017. The good news is that we could achieve as much as three times the growth we are likely to record for the year just gone! The bad news is that we’re starting off a low base of 0.4%... you do the math. This is roughly 20% of the number we need for our economy to start producing jobs, and a couple notches under the 4% growth the global economy is likely to achieve. All things being equal – a recovery from the drought, no major fallout from Brexit for us, no downgrading of our credit status, that sort of thing – we might achieve as much as 1.4%. Other projections include inflation steady at 6%, a 1 percentage point decrease in unemployment to 26%, an exchange rate of between R13 and R14.50. to the dollar and a repo rate of 7% to 7.5%. Risk factors include a souring of AGOA under Trump, a weakening of our European exports market under Brexit and a junking of our credit status under Zuma.
Comment: Happy days.
IN BRIEF
-
Astral For the birds
How’s this for unfair? As the largest electricity client of the Mpumalanga’s delinquent Lekwa Local Municipality, Astral Foods could lose power – and the means to feed some 11.5million chicks daily – if Eskom cuts off power to the municipality as threatened. On the upside for Astral is that their share price has jumped as the drought eases and feed prices return to more sustainable levels.
-
-
Shoprite Turns out size is everything
The merger that will inevitably come to be known as Steinrite, or perhaps Shopoff, we haven’t decided which, is as you know a pretty big deal. But what’s in it for Oom Christo? “I like scale,” explains the big man, simply. He owns 23.1% of Steinhoff and 15.93% of Shoprite, and somehow, the deal is going to add up to a little more for him than the sum of these not insignificant parts.
Sign up to receive the latest SA and international FMCG news weekly.
Tatler Archive
Next Event
27 February: Public Master Class: Independent Ecosystem