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The Big Blue will be releasing their results later this month, and despite the risky conditions prevailing in retail here, analysts are upbeat about the prospects, sending the share price up for six days in a row last week. Something the sharp-suited ones will be subjecting to particular scrutiny in the company PowerPoint is margin – when PnP went into a mild decline relative to the competition some years ago, margin fell as low as 0.8% from an earlier high of 4%, and analysts will be looking for a recovery here – even as the retailer drops prices in order to belly up to SA’s cash-strapped consumers, and in execution of CE Richard Brasher’s strategy of a sales-led turnaround. There are indications that this strategy has paid off, and that PnP has regained some market share, but competitors Shoprite and Woolies are both trading on healthy margins upwards of 5%, so there’s some catching up to do.

Comment: Turning an eighteen wheeler around is no easy matter, as any of the stalwart men (and indeed women) in the driver’s tea room over at Longmeadow will attest. But Mr B appears to have the determination and the muscular forearms for the job.

Unofficially, because no one’s reporting it any more, Shoprite has the biggest share of the FMCG retail market, at an estimated 35%. It runs over 1,100 supermarkets, and has made the most impressive inroads into Africa. And yet its share price has gone flat in comparison with PnP (up 39% in the last year and SPAR up 9%). Wat makeer, ouens? Well for starters, things could be worse. Massmart’s down 17% for the year and Woolies 4%. One of the problems for Shoprite is its exposure to the lower LSMs, who are taking particular strain in these difficult times. Also the oil economies of Nigeria and Angola, ditto. And some of Shoprite’s share is being challenged by new entrants like Choppies. For their part, Shoprite are expecting reasonable results in the second half of the year.

Comment: Which should bring the punters back on board once more, and lift the share price to its customary elevation.

Whither Massmart, eh? The question on everybody’s lips. Since the Walmart deal, the Men in Black have struggled a bit, as Africa, with currencies shaky and commodities down, has failed to deliver immediately on the promise, and as ill economic winds buffet the local consumer. Their 2015 results were not all that, you may recall. But they’ve stuck to their guns in key areas, and this should make for steady improvement in the medium to long term. One of these areas is sustainability, as embodied by the new Makro, the first to make use of renewable energy, in Carnival Mall, Jozi, where solar panels will produce 1 million kWhs of electricity every year, only a little of which will be consumed by the LED bulbs which make up 100% of the store floor lighting. Daylight will be harvested, and refrigeration will be provided by high-performance CO₂ plants.

Comment: Nice work there, Massmart, which will go some way to ensuring a sustainable future, either way you look at it.

You will recall, if you are of a certain age, that Associated British Foods bought 51% of the Illovo business in 2006, leaving the rest to be scrapped over on the JSE by sundry investors. Now ABF are coming after the rest, for the tidy sum of R5.6billion, or R25 a share, to be concluded through a scheme of arrangement with minority investors, for a delisting in July. This despite a difficult six months to September last year, with the drought causing production to fall by 10%, and operating profit to decline 37% to R881million. ABF will doubtless be looking to improve efficiencies in order to keep Illovo competitive in a tough and increasingly uncertain agricultural climate, but not, they emphasise, by selling off assets.

Comment: A vote of confidence in a great local business.

We have built our industry on a poisoned lake of palm oil, and it’s difficult, if not impossible, to know what to do about it. The substance itself is relatively innocuous – an edible oil used in 50 to 60% of all household products. However, it is produced in massive plantations which require widespread deforestation, which in places like Borneo and Sumatra is responsible for habitat loss and the ultimate extinction of animals such as orangutans, currently being lost at the rate of up to 5,000 per year. Enter the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), which was established in 2004 and aimed to transform the industry and promote the production of sustainable palm oil. Now it has emerged that one of the Roundtable’s founding members, Malaysian oil producer IOI, has been guilty of deforestation and the destruction of orangutan habitats. This has resulted in its firing as a supplier not only by Unilever, one of the biggest end-users of palm oil, but also by Hershey’s, Kellogg, Colgate-Palmolive, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, SC Johnson, Yum Brands and Nestlé.

Comment: The days of tokenism and lip service are thankfully ending.

Just what the heck is up with the dear old South African economy, you ask? In a word – and there is, sadly, just one word which covers it – stagflation. Stagflation is a heady combination of stagnant economic growth, high unemployment and inflation all at once and it enables us to basically stagger along on fumes for as long as we’ve got legs to hold us up. The problem with stagflation is that you can’t fix it simply by hiking the interest rate. Hike the rate, and the poor and unemployed get hit. Take measures to increase employment, however, and inflation goes up. Milton Friedman believed that in a stagflationary cycle, steps had to be taken to address the underlying causes of unemployment before the economy could recover. It seems that our Reserve Bank, in its obsession with inflation targeting, is not heeding this wisdom. But don’t take our word for it, read this succinct and eloquent editorial on the subject.

Comment: Got it? We knew you would.

The dearth of leadership of retailers by previously disadvantaged businesspeople remains a stain on, and a significant challenge for, this great industry we call home. According to empowerment ratings agency Empowerdex, Clicks scores highest among the retailers on the empowerment rankings of SA businesses. In 51^st place. According to certain highly regarded business leaders, we just can’t get the people. Which is a shame, as the fortunes of many retailers were built in the last decade or so on a growing base of black consumers.