
THIS ISSUE: 25 Feb - 02 Mar
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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Massmart Mass appeal
As the current ambit of results winds down (or does it? Ed.), we turn our thoughts now to Massmart, ably reported upon by our analysts in last week’s update and summarised somewhat less responsibly right here: Turnover up 8.4% to R84.73bn, with operating profit up 9.4% to R2.15bn and margin holding steady at 2.5%. Makro was the big winner in the Group, with real turnover up 6.4% on internal inflation of 3.4%. Massbuild grew impressively, at 11% overall, although like-store growth was muted at 7.4%. Massdiscounters, under which banner Game falls, showed promise, with the fresh food offering now in 84 stores and counting, and trading profit up 30.3% off an admittedly low base. Massmart are being expectedly glum about it all. “We anticipate further negative pressures, including poor economic growth, higher inflation from the weaker rand, and higher interest rates,” said CEO Guy Hayward.
Comment: Tough times, especially for those businesses with this degree of exposure to South Africa’s beleaguered working classes.
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Pick n Pay This is huge. And also not.
And especially huge because it’s not, if you see what we mean, which you will soon. Flailing around like other retailers for some space to call their own, Pick n Pay have taken a novel and indeed beautiful approach to the problem, working with a spaza owner in Diepkloof, Soweto, to convert his business into a Pick n Pay franchise store. The store is owned by the Legae family, who have traded in Diepkloof since the early 70s. It carries 800 SKUs, and now under the Pick n Pay umbrella offers social grant payouts, Lotto, bill payments, prepaid electricity and Smart Shopper points, a big plus in a sector which has traditionally struggled with shopper loyalty. The strategy will bring the Pick n Pay brand into under-served areas where rival Shoprite has more traction. It will also bring the business into competition with the canny foreign operators who have shaken up the independent retail sector in recent years.
Comment: A truly heartening story of courage and innovation, and one which could only happen in our Beloved Country.
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Shoprite Not too shabby eh Nigeria
Shoprite was one of the early adopters on this continent we call home, rushing into other African countries where other retailers feared to tread, setting up supply lines, building malls and generally getting on with things. And spreading the risk attendant upon being the biggest fish in the South African pond. This is a strategy which by and large has paid off. But the problem with spreading the risk, is that the risk is then spread, and as the price of oil tanks in Nigeria, for example, sliding nearly 40% since last year, and the naira crumbles (to the tune of 28%) to the dollar, the Big Red One is now exposed to tough conditions in not one but two giant African economies. But not to worry, says Whitey. Nigeria is going strong, and even some of the more stubborn supply chain issues there are soon to be resolved, as Shoprite works with local officials and suppliers to ruk things reg. For example, 76% of stock there is now sourced locally, which helps Shoprite avoid the red tape involved in importing stuff.
Comment: Shoprite is having to adjust its expectations in Nigeria. But it is by all accounts there for the long haul.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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RCL Clipping their wings
RCL Foods, once known as Rainbow chicken, has been scaling back its production of chicken these past couple years in (accurate, as it turns out) anticipation of a glut of the original white meat on the market – a glut soon to be exacerbated by the arrival of 65,000 tons of the stuff from the US. Chicken contributed just R4billion of the Group’s R12billion turnover for the six months to December, and accounted for 19% of profit. An interesting take on the subject comes from David Wolpert of the Association of Meat Importers, who believes that the US quota will not affect local production, and will “barely” replace imports from places like China and India. SA Poultry Association CEO Kevin Lovell takes another view: "We are capable of producing enough chicken for our own market only if we can afford to,” he says, pointing to high input costs as the rand continues to be weak and the drought drags on.
Comment: Whatever the take, Rainbow’s decision to diversify out of poultry to take on SA’s biggest food producers will prove historic.
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Adcock Ingram Looking healthy
Not so long ago, it seemed, SA’s second biggest pharmaceuticals outfit was on the ropes, losing to rival Aspen and prey to a hostile takeover by Bidvest’s Brian Joffe. Bidvest is now the majority shareholder, at 37%, Mr Joffe’s in the chair, and things are going swimmingly. Revenue was up 7% to R2.76billion for the six months to December, and trading profit soared 20% to R293m. Even better, it would seem that market share is on its way back too. It’s looking to divest itself of its sales and marketing unit in India, where it will retain an unrelated manufacturing unit, but is on the lookout for other acquisitions back in the Republic, in personal, home and baby care – categories which do not labour under the burden of the same regulations as pharmaceuticals.
Comment: Welcome back Adcock. Had us worried there for a moment.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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The Budget In a nutshell
Hot off the press, our report on Minister Pravin “Whew, dodged a bullet there!” Gordhan’s almost recent budget. What to say, what to say. OK. We’ll say what everyone else said, including Maria Ramos of Barclays Africa Group Ltd (soon, tellingly, to offload its ownership of ABSA) and Nedbank CEO Mike Brown: “The minister did a solid job in very difficult circumstances.” Will the budget be austere enough to stave off the carrion-fowl of the ratings agencies? Too soon to tell according to almost everyone else, although many commentators seem doubtful. But everyone agrees that a downgrade to junk would be a bad thing, causing the rand to collapse further, interest rates to spike and, perhaps, a recession to stalk the land. And then you would see the austerity the markets were hoping for, wouldn’t you just. And if it’s a snappy, at-a-glance view of the highlights you’re after, click here.
Comment: Truly, the Minster made the best of a bad job, and the latest brawl with SARS notwithstanding, it’s good to have him back at the wheel.
IN BRIEF
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British American Tobacco We need a fag
This is what passes for good news in the tobacco industry, these days: “British American Tobacco, the world's second-biggest tobacco company, reported a smaller-than-expected fall in 2015 revenue on Thursday, helped by a smaller decline in organic cigarette volumes.”
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Anheuser-Busch We think you’ve had quite enough
Ahead of its $100billion takeover of SABMiller, in order to create the world’s largest brewer, AB-Inbev is taking a bit of strain in the US where the tide of consumer preference is turning against mass-produced swill and towards actual beer, with both Budweiser and Bud Light losing market share and margins declining as they blow their advertising budget on puppies and carthorses.
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