
THIS ISSUE: 05 Feb - 11 Feb
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
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Clicks If it seems to be too good to be true…
…it’s probably a herbal nutritional supplement. Like US-based GNC, to which Clicks holds exclusive distribution rights and which has been ordered by the New York Attorney General to stop distributing certain lines through various stores (including GNC’s own) on the grounds that these products were “fraudulent and potentially dangerous.” According to one set of tests, only one in five GNC supplements contains the herbs listed on the label, most contain “fillers” such as rice powder, and some even contain potential allergens. GNC are naturally disputing the claims, and Clicks has elected to stand by their brand. In 1998, GNC was taken to court by some of its franchisees who accused the brand of heaping hidden costs on them and undercutting their prices in a buyback programme when the franchise stores become sufficiently profitable.
Comment: Dietary supplements and dodgy business practices have a long and entertaining history together. Caveat emptor indeed, ahem.
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Shoprite The Irresponsible Speculation Department
With the Pepkor/Steinhoff merger, it would seem that Christo Wiese has cemented his reputation as the Lion of SA Retail, and that the time has come for him to survey his vines with a glass of the good stuff in hand and reflect upon his legacy. Not so, say certain excitable analysts who point out that there is at least one peak left for him to scale, if you don’t mind us switching our metaphors. And that would be the alliance of Steinhoff and Shoprite, a move that would see the rise of a furniture, food and clothing giant that could threaten Walmart’s ambitions in the developing world at least. Wiese is, as you know, a major shareholder in each business – a position he’s been much given to leveraging in the past. And a merger would massively boost the footprint and buying power of both, from Africa to the former Iron Curtain.
Comment: As our own economy teeters on the verge of stagnancy, expansion into global markets by some of our most successful businesses will become the big story of the next ten years. You mark our words.
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Retail Shares The Big Red One for a win and a place in the eighth
2014 was not a notably brilliant year for retailers. With consumer slowdown, slowing job creation, industrial action, the debt burden and inflation, few retailers reported fantastic performances, and most sounded a cautionary note for the months and years ahead. And indeed, here in the one fiver, despite the artificially reduced price of fuel that will put a welcome R20billion into the pockets of consumers, no one’s expecting fireworks in this sector we call home anytime soon. But try telling that to the punters, particularly the foreign ones! Investors continue to inject their readies into our retail shares in the hopes of big payola down the line, and this has resulted in some pretty robust evaluations. Last year, Woolies’ shares headed north to the tune of 48.2%, Shoprite by 26.1% and Pick n Pay, in the midst of an as yet unproven turnaround, by 27.7%.
Comment: It just shows to go, eh.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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RCL Foods On eagles’ wings. In a manner of speaking.
RCL Foods – the artist previously known as Rainbow Chicken – has always been modest and responsible when announcing its successes, favouring the solo muted trumpet rather than the full brass section. So when they mention in a trading update that they expect a “substantial improvement in profit”, best you take them seriously, as a passel of other punters did, sending their share price skyward to the tune of 11%. RCL, as you know, acquired two other businesses, Foodcorp and TSB Sugar in 2013, in order to diversify their holdings out of the beleaguered poultry sector, and evolve into a full-on food business – a goal they seem now to have achieved, with headline earnings per share (the One True Measure of Profitability™) of 2.3cents per for the year ending 31 Dec 2014.
Comment: We look forward to the detail when those annuals are published, and will hasten to give you the lowdown when they are.
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Tiger Brands In the forests of the night
Bad news from Nigeria, which specialises in the stuff these days, is that Tiger Brands’ losses in that blighted behemoth have widened to about R176million for the first quarter, as a weakness in the Naira takes its toll on a pleasing 27.5% increase in sales. And with the collapse of the oil price, don’t expect fireworks for the rest of the year either, despite improved efficiencies and a coherent recovery plan for the Dangote business, is the message. Tiger bought Dangote Flour Mills two years ago for R1.5bilions; they’ve had to write off R849million of the premium they paid as well as another R105million against the value of the firm’s stated assets since. The weakness of the Nigerian currency has driven up the cost of raw materials and offset gains in both sales and efficiencies.
Comment: Ceteris paribus, as our old philosophy teacher liked to say, Tiger may well build the platform for growth it has longed for on that troubled but perpetually promising African giant.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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Davos Climb every mountain
While African leaders these days seem to be more prized for their value as internet memes of dubious taste (since when was any 90 year old man falling an hilarious spectacle? The times we live in.), Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene is confident that we acquitted ourselves rather well at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, all things considered. Specifically, he says, we conveyed a mature understanding of our challenges to investors and explained how we are addressing them. We communicated South Africa’s position of leadership in and commitment to the African neighbourhood in which we are located, and contextualised for investors the many opportunities available in South Africa, the SADC and the rest of the continent.
Comment: These are things that he had to say, no doubt. But it’s worth reminding ourselves sometimes that South Africa remains a major local and significant global player.
IN BRIEF
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Retail Wages Have a nice day
The minimum wage for retail workers – including cashiers, clerks, assistant managers, displayers, forklift operators, security guards, merchandisers, managers, sales assistants, sales persons, shop assistant supervisors and trainee manager – has gone up between 6.1% and 8.1% from the beginning of this month. But you already knew that.
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SABMiller An oldie but a goodie
Remember that case that was brought against SABMiller at the Competition Commission by a disgruntled independent liquor distributor in ’04? To the effect that The Burly One was favouring a selected group of appointed distributors with preferential pricing? Well, over a decade on, that case has been thrown out by the Competition Tribunal in a decision which could absolutely not be described as “a victory for the little guy.”