
THIS ISSUE: 29 Jan - 04 Feb
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Choppies Chop shop
Choppies CEO Ramachandran Ottapath has mentioned that the Plucky One will be investing a further $US10million big ones in Zimbabwe. Named for a Tintin villain, Mr Ottopath says that the plan is to open another store in the next couple months to join the 18 they already have, with a total of 40 scheduled for the next three years, targeting turnover of $350million annually. Twelve of these are scheduled for the next year. And not only this, but they are also planning on launching in Zambia, with three stores scheduled for 2015, and ten over the next three years.
Comment: We may have said this before, but Choppies are rapidly becoming a force to be reckoned with in the neighbouring states – and even within our borders. This will not have escaped the notices of Messrs Basson, Brasher and O’Connor.
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Clicks Six of one and twenty weeks of another
It’s a slow news week, so like our colleagues in the business press we’ll pick a random period of say, 20 weeks, and report on the doings of one of our retailers during that period. In the case of Clicks, for the 20 weeks to January 18, the doings were in fact significant: sales up 13.9% to R8.2billion, with Group turnover up 10.3%. Behind this performance, according to Mr Kneale, was a well-planned promotional strategy which saw sales burgeon even through the metaphorically chilly post-festive period. Breaking the numbers down, Clicks itself grew comparable sales 7.6%, The Body Shop – going particularly big on promos – grew them 9%, UPD soared at 21%, while Musica, for which we still have a very good idea, saw like store sales grow just one measly percent.
Comment: An excellent performance, which will surely have seen Clicks gain some share off the competition – but whom?
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Shoprite Going steady
This month, Famous Brands will open its first in-store Debonairs in its Angolan JV with Shoprite, in the town of Benguela. It seems a little early to us, but now both parties are talking about taking the relationship to the next level. First up, they’re keen to work together in Geographies (ahem) like Zambia and Nigeria, where Shoprite has a significant footprint. The attraction for Famous, in particular, is the difficulty of making a buck back home, where unemployment loiters stubbornly around 25%, and where consumer spending has been depressed by strikes and rising inflation. Conversely, economies north of our border are growing, and along with them, the appetite of consumers for modern retail and mass-produced pizza alike.
Comment: This wave of defensive growth by South African companies into new territories is both an indictment on a mismanaged economy, and paradoxically one of the best hopes this economy has. If you catch our drift.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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AVI Fishing for compliments
Those AVI interims you’ve been on tenterhooks for these how many weeks now? Rest easy. Total revenue was up a solid 11% to R6billions for the six months to December, while headline earnings per share grew somewhere between 8% and 11%. Breaking it down, I&J grew sales an impressive 19.2%, although they missed the boat (as it were) on the drop in oil price by its prudent oil hedging strategy. Entyce Beverages was up 10.8%, Snackworks grew sales 13.1%, and the still quaintly anomalous footwear division increased revenue by 11.8%. The only non-performer was Indigo Brands, whose revenue declined by 5.7% on the revision of its trading terms with Coty – although its own brands did rather well at 8% up.
Comment: Like many of its peers in our great industry, AVI seems to be holding its own in an unfriendly trading climate.
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SABMiller He’s only there for the beer…
We wouldn’t normally get all aflutter about the appointment of a non-executive director, even to the board of SABMiller. Except that in this case it’s our favourite ex-Minister of Finance, Trevor Manuel. Manuel is a welcome addition to a board which is overwhelmingly white and male, although to be honest, he too is male. While he is not stepping directly into the shoes of Cyril Ramaphosa, who left in 2013 to pursue a career of pussyfooting and vacillation in government, the similarity in the background and their comparable abilities have been duly noted. As, no doubt, have their political connections. Since leaving government last May, Manuel has thrown himself with vim and gusto into the private sector – as senior advisor and deputy Chairman of Rothschild South Africa and – potentially – as a new member of the board for Swiss Re.
Comment: Money’s gain is South Africa’s loss.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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Consumers A slippery slope
According to economists, consumers have “never had it so good.” This on the back of a modest decline in inflation, from 5.8% to 5.3%, and in the price of fuel, which is expected to drop another R1 in the month of February. The declining fuel price is likely to result in a further drop in inflation, which could even go lower than 5%, and this is going to put more money in the pockets of South Africa’s punters, where it will doubtless burn a hole and will help them rack up further debt, in a tradition as South African as cooked meat and ball games on wiry yellow grass. According to the National Credit Bureau, total consumer debt is coming in at or near R1.47trn in mortgages, vehicle finance, credit cards, store cards, personal loans, short-term loans, pension and insurance-backed loans.
Comment: Still, we could hope that at least some of the expected bounty will go towards servicing some of that debt
IN BRIEF
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Food Prices A dry white season
Before we get too excited about low petrol prices and a drop in inflation, look to the skies. If the drought conditions in the Free State, the North West and KZN persist, we could be in for a poor harvest of commodities like maize, wheat and sugar and higher food prices than many South African households are able to sustain.
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Retailers Thwock! Kapow!
SA’s retailers have done modestly well in Deloitte’s grandiosely-titled Global Powers of Retailing rankings for 2014, with Shoprite coming in at 107th globally. Looking at Africa and the Middle East, we fared understandably better, Shoprite coming in at number one, Pick n Pay in third, SPAR fifth and Woolworths seventh.

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