THIS ISSUE: 07 Nov - 13 Nov
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
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Massmart Throwdown!
Massmart are getting all up in everyone’s grill, filing formal complaints at the Competition Commission against Pick n Pay, Shoprite and SPAR for what they (the MIB) consider to be “intuitively anti-competitive” exclusive lease agreements, which, they feel, prevent them from competing fairly against the Big Boys in Food. They refer specifically, of course, to Game, where sales and sales density growth in food and GM alike have been higher in stores with the Foodco offering. This in the face of an interdict obtained by Pick n Pay to prevent Game from opening a Foodco at the CapeGate and Liberty Midlands Malls, and this from the press: “Apparently one of the national chains has sent letters to 13 malls, warning landlords to honour the agreements.” Ooooooooh!
Comment: Conceivably, of course, brands like Cambridge (and perhaps one day Oxford?) might also run into headwinds at malls where the big fellers have set up shop. In which case a Massmart victory at the comish would be all the more significant.
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Woolworths If you want loyalty, get a (pedigreed) dog.
Woolworths’ customers are a restless and demanding bunch. Or so The Dapper One would have us believe. Because they are constantly on the go, we are told, moving from somewhere important to somewhere more important, and this leads them inexorably toward a convenient Engen, where they stock up on Aloe smoothies before rushing off to their next appointment with the Great and the Good. Imagine their frustration, though, at not being able to pick up their well-deserved WRewards as they do. All that’s changing. Woolies are now extending the W programme to Foodstop punters, which we suppose, come to think of it, we could have told you in a line or two.
Comment: Shrewd move by Mr Moir and the team though: the 3 million customers packing the W card, each one hand-ground from a block of solid carbon, typically spend 16% more than regular folk like you and me, and have bought 19% more things in Engen stores.
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Pick n Pay Niemand diss die Hof nie
Well almost niemand. Although Conrad Koch, handler of beloved plaything Chester Missing, has mentioned Steve Hofmeyr in a column in the Times, calling upon Pick n Pay to refrain from sponsoring the all-white AIG (Afrikaans is Groot) festival which the wispy-haired breker-turned-boer is headlining. Last week, you might remember with a shudder, the Father of the Nation (well a good few of them, anyway) let it be known in a tweet that he considered black people to be the Architects of Apartheid, which they were demonstrably and tragically not. Pick n Pay have pointed out that they are merely sponsoring the festival, not Hofmeyr per se, but that they are in any case reviewing their support for future such events. Hofmeyer, in the meantime, is doing what he does best: playing the red-eyed, quivery-jawed victim and getting injunctions against Koch left, right, right again, and centre.
Comment: A storm in a teacup, perhaps, however vile the views of Hofmeyr. But there is a trend, it seems, toward all sort of groups demanding accountability from businesses over issues for which they are only marginally responsible at best.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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Clover Milky Chance
Clover’s triumphant return to yoghurt and custard, and their likely acquisition of Dairybelle, has got the usually gimlet-eyed analysts all a flutter, and has seen the share climbing 18% this last quarter on the FTSE/JSE Africa all-share index. One of the reasons for the rally, we are told, is that international investors have been nosing around our markets for a while now, and a business like Clover, with a clearly-articulated and snappily titled strategy (Blue Steel? Blue Moo? Cielo Blue!) for reorganisation and growth, as well as their leading position in an ironclad industry, might be attractive to such sorts. Clover has plans to open in Angola and Nigeria once critical mass is achieved in those oil-laden markets, and a distributorship has been opened up in Mozambique, so there’s that, too.
Comment: And don’t we wish we’d squirrelled away a bit of Clover back when we were flush…
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Retail Congress Africa Let’s talk shop
Retail Congress Africa kicks off next week, and packed as it is to the gills with punchy and relevant content, best you get online here to make your reservation. As you may be aware, the Congress aims to provide an insight into African retail, a vision of best practice and an opportunity to benchmark performance plans against performance of other retailers. At this year’s event, over 70 speakers will take the stage, covering ground which will include inspirational keynotes and real “how to” case studies of entering new markets and understanding the new African consumer. Among the highlights for us this year will be presentations from these crucial players in our exciting industry:David North, Group Executive – Strategy and Corporate Affairs of Pick n Pay, which we would love to see recovering a bit of market share, the “how” of which we would be particularly interested inNeel Shah, Business Development Manager at burgeoning East African retail power NakumattGreg Solomon, Managing Director McDonald’s South Africa. Go on – give us the recipe!Comment: We’d love to see you there – particularly, ahem, at the Trade Intelligence session on Retail Trends.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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Ratings Baa Humbug!
Citing poor growth prospects and a deteriorating investor climate, international ratings agency Moody’s have downgraded our government’s debt rating to Baa2 from Baa1, although they have changed the outlook from negative to stable. Our notoriously sensitive currency responded with a 1.9% dip to R11.25 to the USD. This, we need not remind you, after an annus horribilis which has not yet ended but has thus far included strikes, severe electricity shortages, weak consumer demand and fragile investor confidence. Oh yes, and the Treasury itself, which last month lowered its forecast for GDP growth this year to 1.4%, its lowest level since the Great Decession of 2009.
Comment: They shoot… they score… Laduuuuuummmmaaaaah! Wait, which goal was that… nooooooo!
IN BRIEF
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Tiger Brands Don’t shoot the messenger
This just off the wires: EPS from total operations over at Tiger Brands is expected to decline by between 21% and 24% whilst HEPS (The One True Measure of Profitability) from total operations is expected to increase by between 10% and 13%. Put that in your portfolio and smoke it.
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Bidvest Aaaand 11.50 from the gentleman with the carnation, do I hear 11.75, 11.75 ma’am, 11.75 going once….
The bad news from Bidvest, which for years we mistakenly thought was an auction house specialising in the sale of lightly-used undergarments, is that they have once again decided not to list their food service business separately. The move would not be in investors’ interests, say Bidvest, and they have identified more attractive opportunities, on which they’re not currently elaborating. Disappointed shareholders, hoping for a big payola, have driven the share price south a notch, whence it will doubtless recover in due course.
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