Retail prices Once upon a time…
“Hey everybody, look at us! We’re economists. 1.5%! Lalalalala!” Once again the practitioners of the dismal science have it wrong. This time, they got it 400% wrong, with the consensus that retail sales for November would be 1 to 1.2% up, compared with 1.4% for October. In fact, the numbers stormed through at 4.2%, which the same economists are calling a “correction”, or recovery, from the strike-y months of September and October. General dealers at 7.1% growth and textile, clothing and footwear merchants at 9% were the big contributors with our own dear industry, in the retailers of food, beverages and tobacco category, actually losing ground to the tune of 0.8%. In Wholesale, the picture was better with prices up 6.8% year on year – or 1.7% in seasonally-adjusted real terms.
Comment: The consensus, which does seem trustworthy, is that November’s surprise numbers do not presage sustainable growth in a market assailed by shaky consumer confidence, limited job growth and the rest of the usual suspects.