
THIS ISSUE: 14 Nov - 21 Nov
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SPAR Green shoots (and scores)
While the bad news last week was the resignation of Wayne Hook as CEO, the good news for SPAR was as solid a set of results as you could hope for given recent conditions: turnover up 9.8% to R47.4bn with profit after tax up 12.4% to R1.2bn. And here’s an interesting one for you: volumes through the seven DCs were up 4.3%, for a total of 203.5 cases for the year. Here’s the breakdown: Retail turnover for SPAR stores up 9.1% to R58.5bn, with Tops up 15.9% to R5.8bn, and Build it up 12% to R8.3bn. The Distribution model is a winner for SPAR, providing as it does a captive market, and cutting out the risks of owning all but a handful of the 850 stores trading under its banner. On the downside, the wholesale margin of 3.5% on which it relies is slimmer than that of Shoprite, say, at 6%, and there’s not a lot of room to grow it.
Comment: The SPAR model proves itself again, this time as a brand which retains the loyalty of the South African punter even when times are tough. Nice one.
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Massmart Hold your horses, Bwana!
The Men in Black have walked away from the Naivas deal in Kenya, driven hence by the nasty bickering sparked in the owning family by their approach. This, we are told, is far from uncommon in Kenya: an unnamed Nairobi investment banker has disclosed that each of the last six of her deals involving such businesses have collapsed because the family members could not agree on who owned what. There’s also the horrible price small supermarket owners are asking for their businesses, encouraged by international demand as the big boys all scramble to get footprint on The World’s Most Promising Continent™. Naivas, you will remember, owns 30 supers across Kenya, and plans another 30 in the next three years, expanding elsewhere in East Africa. And tellingly, they plan to bring more non-family members onto the board.
Comment: The rise of formal retail in Kenya makes for a thrilling yarn, one which we are aching to tell in our inimitable Haggardesque manner.
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Woolworths Not so fast there, Effendi!
So Woolies is pulling out of Nigeria because of bribes and duties and Lagos traffic and hyenas on leads and what what. The Nigerians themselves have another story to tell of businesses which have not grasped the fundamentals of strategy in that admittedly confusing geography, and who haven't the patience to wait for the rich pickings which reveal themselves when you're prepare to put in the time. Of the importance of building a brand which might yet be confused with defunct UK retailers of the same name. Of stores whose austere yet tasteful design might send the wrong message about the value of the merchandise on the racks and shelves. Such parities also point out that Mr Price had its second-biggest opening day ever in Lagos, and that a Mr J. Wellwood Basson is busily raking in the green stuff hand over fist from a grateful and still under-stored populace.
Comment: Use it, don’t use it. We wouldn’t be surprised if The Dapper One returned to those chaotic climes in a couple year’s time, and would be oddly gratified if it did.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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Astral Scratching, a bit
We have reached that sad ambit when the chicken producers annual results start to shuffle in, with dismal tales of astronomical feed prices and the depredations of Brazilian dumpers. First off the mark would be Astral, with operating profits down 43% for a loss of R109m off turnover growth of just 3% to R6bn thanks substantially to their higher selling prices, up 8.4%. On the upside, the poultry division turned a small profit after cutting broiler production by 5% according to an American model which says that sometimes it’s a good idea to slow things down a little in a market where supply outstrips demand. And in the feed division, operating profit was up a satisfactory 15%, while the African division, encompassing plants in Zambia, Mozambique and Swaziland, saw revenue lift 30% to R442m, with operating profit rising 19% to R45m.
Comment: All of which suggests that Astral might be on the verge of a turnaround and now could be a good time to put chicken back in the old portfolio.
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Fry’s The real thing
Here a great idea to hit the competition where it hurts: promote the idea of a day in the week in which it will be morally reprehensible to consume any of their product. This in effect is what Fry’s, longtime manufacturer of indisputably tasty and convincingly chewy meat-substitute products, are in effect attempting to do with their Meat-Free Mondays. Fry’s unlike so many of our Platteland readers, are of the conviction that large-scale meat consumption is bad for our dear old planet, citing frightening numbers like the fact that livestock production is responsible for 90% of the Amazon deforestation since 1970. And the estimate that livestock accounts for about 51% of greenhouse gas production. Accordingly, Fry’s have begun promoting the idea among the consumers of tomorrow, visiting a total of 10 000 schoolkids to date and planning to reach another 15000 in the next couple of years to persuade them to convince mum to take meat of the menu on Mondays.
Comment: Which is what we call a start.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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Retail Sales Cold fact
After their unexpected bounce in the month of August, with sales up 3.2%, it's back to reality in September for Retail Trade Sales, which showed growth of only 0.2% year on year for that anxious month. Economists, all of whom retained their jobs, had predicted 2.4%. To put this in perspective, this is literally twelve times the actual figure. Even sports commentators would get fired for such a poor call. The big performers in September were our old nemeses in the textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods industries with a 5.9% jump in sales. Spikes notwithstanding, the general trend is currently on slowing growth, attributable to a serpent's nest of factors which include slowing income growth, a slowdown in the growth of unsecured credit, no job creation, declining consumer confidence, and a rise in the cost of living, including the cost of petrol, electricity and education. And all of this portends for a slowdown in economic growth, too.
Comment: The inclination of the South African consumer to spend is a shaky foundation on which to build an economy. Fresh thinking is needed. Perhaps this time we should leave the economists out of it.
IN BRIEF
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Pick n Pay Rate this
Not that it matters a damn, but ratings agency Fitch has downgraded Pick n Pay from something called an A+ (zaf) to an A (zaf) reflecting the group's “expected slower pace of deleveraging than previously anticipated with funds from operations.” This as Pick n Pay kicks its recovery into gear. And, as we never tire of asking, who rates the ratings agency? Finally, an answer: Fitch, you’re downgraded to a B- (tat), just because!
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Clicks Tick, tick
Don’t ask us what on earth this means, but hot off the SENS ticker tape comes the news that the Clicks Group is considering the issuance of a perpetual preference share instrument of between R500m and R900m subject to market conditions and ordinary shareholder approvals in order to accelerate Clicks Group’s current share repurchase programme. Dust off those certificates, people.

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