
THIS ISSUE: 07 Sep - 12 Sep
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
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Kaap Agri Nou gaan die poppe dans
“Kaap wie?” vra jy, and alweer is jy verkeerd, net soos jy in Engels is. Kaap Agri, you see, are set to become something our laconic colleagues over at Cape Business News are calling the “Boere Massmart”. Having streamlined when they split off their holding in Pioneer Foods, the Boere Massmart have started to establish a formidable retail presence in the form of the original Agrimark, and newer VillageMart, Pakmart, SaveMart and LiquorMart. These businesses represent a significant departure from the core, which remains the provision of trade products and equipment to the farming community. They now offer convenience groceries, liquor and fuel to a market that is increasingly paying cash rather than putting it on tick and waiting for the Rinderpest to blow over. The new strategy appears to be paying off, with retail and trading formats accounting for around 80% of Kaap Agri’s turnover of R1.36billion for the half-year, up 20%, with pre-tax profits coming in at R70million.
Comment: Is Kaap Agri the fabled Sixth Retailer of which mysterious crones have warned these how many years?
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Woolworths “We are shocked – shocked to learn that (insert whinge here)!”
Woolies has had a knack this year of bringing certain unpalatable truths about South African businesses to the surface. One was that everybody cribs from everybody else, and that the brave little businesses which don’t, crib from overseas. The next is that affirmative action continues to be both legal and widespread and a good way of redressing past imbalances. This latter truth so enraged white South Africans who had no intention of applying for a job at Woolworths that some of them responded to an opportunistic blogger who launched a consumer boycott against The Dapper One, while others wrote such nasty things on their Facebook wall that they were forced to take it down. Woolworths have taken the issue seriously, with Mr Moir, whom we have thoroughly enjoyed in the Transporter movies, issuing a statement to the effect that Woolworths does indeed employ white people but prefers not to in positions where other race groups are grossly under-represented.
Comment: Where the boycotters are currently getting their bottled artichokes or aloe and pomegranate juice escapes us.
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Clover Strong drink
Clover, who rather delightfully used to place two of those dumpy glass litre bottles of milk on our front step every morning back in the seventies, have made the wholesome purchase of 100% of the equity of and shareholder’s loans in The Real Juice Company off AVI for R60bar. Clover, you may recall, are pursuing a strategy of expanding their portfolio of value-added and branded beverages, using their low gearing and good cash flow to do so. The Real Juice Co enjoys good brand recognition in the Western Cape, which paired with Clover’s excellent sales and distribution network should soon see the stuff flying off the shelves. Ceteris paribus, as our legal friends have been heard to murmur on occasion, the deal will go through on 1 October.
Comment: A great beverage brand, a company uniquely able to do it full justice. And of course a handsome wedge of the ready stuff for AVI. Looks like everybody’s smiling to us.
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Pioneer Foods Boldly go, and all that.
Pioneer Foods have mentioned in a trading update that while revenue was up for the 11 months just gone, to the tune of 10.5% for a total of R16.7bn, volumes were in fact down between 2% and 4% across the Group’s basket, with inflation soaring at 13.5% across the range. It’s not all bad news, though. Pioneer have put the squeeze on prices in wheat‚ maize and bread products, leading to an improvement in volumes in those critical categories since June. And pasta volumes have also held their own against stiff (when uncooked, obviously) local and imported competition. But back to Mr Downside: increases in raw material costs have caused price increases of 10% in wheat and maize products from this month, with another 8% to 12% coming in October.
Comment: Hello, food inflation.
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Tiger Brands Milling around
Up in Zim, Tiger Brands, like other South African businesses before it, appears to be voting with the old wallet against, or rather for, the day that His Excellency is no more, increasing their stake in National Foods from 26% to 37%, for which privilege they forked over $11.7million. The challenge for National Foods, which mills maize and flour, processes animal feeds and packages rice, pastas, and beans, is imported processed foods, against which it is struggling to compete on price. And with a poor agricultural season now winding down, it is going to have to rely on expensive imports for some of its core products, putting pressure on prices. The silver lining angle here is that the Tiger windfall has helped it unlock some of its underutilised capacity, as well as invest in much needed industrial equipment.
Comment: No one is going to get loaded overnight in Zim. Except maybe at the Explorers Club at the Meikles. But big up to Tiger and Co for jumping in anyway.
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Retail Sales We’re moderately doomed!
You may, like us, have been excited by June’s promising retail sales figures, up 8.3% year on year. Not so fast, sunshine. According to the more somber heads over at Rand Merchant Bank, it’s the quarterly numbers you want to look at – and there, the story is decelerating growth. 7.5% for the last quarter of ’11, 4.5% for the first quarter of ’12 and 5.5% for the second, assisted by June’s anomalous numbers. And in real terms, retail sales averaged R45.9bn per month in the last six months of ’11 compared with R46.4bn for the first six months of this year – that’s growth of just 1%. What underlies this? Shaky consumer confidence, for starters – it dropped from plus 5 in the last quarter of ’11 to minus 3 in the first quarter this year, its lowest level since the onset of the Great Decession. And debt – growth in general loans, which includes personal loans, is steaming along at 3.2% year on year, with 3 out of every 5 punters out there defaulting on one or other of their obligations at some point in the first quarter this year.
Comment: So buckle up, gang. It’s going to get bumpy.
IN BRIEF
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Incolabs “Oh, Mr Sun, Sun, Mr Golden Sun…”
Still offering sterling service to SA’s sun-worshippers are Incolabs, who bring you Everysun and Tropitone, and are the first manufactures to come forward and attest to the safety of their products in the light, if you’ll forgive us, of a report which suggests that most South African-manufactured sunscreen products are “not optimal” in providing protection from the UVA rays of the sun. Incolabs products, you see, have obtained the SABS-issued SANS 1557 Standard from 2009, as well as international European Cosmetics Association Colipa requirements. It should probably also be mentioned that we are partial to endorsing them ourselves, to our guests, as we cruise the Lesser Antilles in our vintage Swan 65 come Xmas time.
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Woolworths The September Revolution
Here is a sentence so priceless it deserves to be written down twice: “The Young Communist League of South Africa said they support Woolworths’ initiative and encouraged others to follow similar radical approach (sic) in order to redress the injustice of the past.”
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