Looking a little soviet-era in the fridges these past couple weeks has been Woolies, where punters have had cause to complain about shortages of fresh meat and veggies, notably in KZN and Gauteng. What gives? Oh nothing. Spot of climate change is all. And something they’re calling a “supplier issue”. “Heavy rainfall in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal has had an impact on some of our fresh produce and affected the supply of lettuce, spinach, and cauliflower, among other items,” explains the Dapper One. But they’ve stepped on the problem right smartly. Among the issues keeping produce from the shelves are fields literally underwater, and roads and bridges that have been washed away. “There is … more stock of poultry, duck, venison, fish, and prepared meals at Woolies stores to make up for this gap in availability – we hope this will give our customers suitable alternatives in the meantime.”

Comment: A lack of predictability is the enemy of supply chain stability, and a feature of climate change. Our industry – and our shoppers – will inevitably have to become more flexible as things get weirder.

Shoprite and Woolies are in the midst of a catfight over the pet category, where sales of pet food alone are expected to reach R16bn this year, and double that by 2030. Shoprite opened 42 Petshop Science stores last year, for a total of 128, and CEO Pieter Engelbrecht reckons they’ll be number one by the end of the year. Hold my crumbles, says Woolies. “We are the market leader in the pet category in South Africa,” notes a bullish Roy Bagattini. “When you combine our Woolies Pet and the Absolute Pets offering in total, we expect to continue that leadership position going forward.” Woolies currently has over 170 Absolute Pets stores trading, as part of its Woolworths Ventures stable, which also houses small format WEdit clothing stores, WCafé coffee shops and liquor business WCellar. Shoprite is also taking increasingly bold steps beyond traditional grocery; it will be rolling out more standalone Medirite pharmacies, for which the business now has 140 licences in hand.

Comment: One way to look at this is diversification. Another is consolidation of sectors other than grocery, and the decline of small business in every category.

Something that slipped through the cracks between the many, many interims we reported on last week is that following a successful pilot in Gauteng and the Western Cape, the Sixty60 delivery service is shortly to launch in 19 Shoprite stores across eight provinces. “After many months of working behind-the-scenes, we are excited to introduce Shoprite Sixty60 to locations where it can have a meaningful impact for consumers needing the convenience of home delivery, and where the logistics are in place to support a seamless experience,” says swashbuckling Strategy and Innovation chief Neil Schreuder. At the same time, Checkers is launching a new e-commerce website that brings the convenience of Sixty60 to even more shoppers who can now order online using their favourite browser on any device. Moving on, Pick n Pay has recently fallen foul of the authorities, resulting in the closure of a Boxer Supermarket at Nkomo Village Mall in Atteridgeville for contravening operational compliance notices and Blu Valley Pick n Pay in Centurion for non-compliance with health regulations.

Comment: Own goals, and as such avoidable, and moreover rather to be avoided in this tough competitive ambit for a business bent on restoring its fortunes.

Big news from Japan is that discount supermarket chain operator Trial Holdings will be buying rival Seiyu Co for 380 billion yen (¥) as a wholly owned subsidiary, creating a retail group with sales exceeding ¥1tn. The current owners are US investment shop Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co (KKR) at 85% and a little outfit called Walmart at 15%. “We will integrate our strengths and offer more value than we had before,” says Hiroyuki Nagata, a Trial board member, sounding a bit like a cricket commentator stating that the Proteas need to score more runs and lose fewer wickets (obvs). Among Seiyu’s strengths are a solid presence in Tokyo and surrounds, as well as in central and western Japan. The business posted a net profit of ¥11.44bn in the fiscal year that ended June last year, +41.5% YoY, on sales that rose +9.9% to ¥717.95bn. To get the dollar amount, divide everything by 148 or thereabout.

Comment: A shakeup in a market that has been affected in recent years by an aging population and shrinking consumer base.

A robust set of interims from recent RCL FOODS spinoff (and venerable South African institution) Rainbow Chicken last week, in which the latterly-resurgent business reported revenue growth of +8.9% to R7.9bn. “An improved diverse channel and product mix significantly contributed to Rainbow’s strong market position. Additionally, the company has experienced robust demand for further-processed value products in the past six months,” said the directors. They also noted that the financial performance was driven by operational improvements, improved agricultural performance, efficiencies and a focus on cost management, together with lower commodity pricing compared with the comparative period.

Comment: Chicken remains a sector where a buck can be made, despite the perennial headwinds.

“Desire at scale: I want to ensure that this is injected in our marketing philosophy,” waxes new Unilever CEO Fernando Fernandez, a 37-year veteran of the business who hails from Argentina, and presumably knows his way around a tango. His orders are simple: make changes quickly and put the business on a firm footing once more. To achieve this, he plans to invest heavily in influencer marketing. He notes that India has 19,000 zip codes, and Brazil has 5,764 municipalities – and he wants to have an influencer in each of them. “That’s a significant change. It requires a machine of content creation very different from the one we have had in the past,” the new CEO said. He plans to increase social platform spending from 30% to 50% of the total advertising budget. He also plans to cut smaller businesses from the portfolio, having already identified €1bn worth of European food brands in the broader portfolio that aren’t a fit for the business, and spin off the ice-cream business, although not, as yet, the broader food business.

Comment: A certain ruthlessness has taken hold in our era, in politics and in business. Some efficiencies might be gained; it’s not so easy to discern what might be lost.

A quick breeze through the economic indicators for the month of February, as dispensed by our excellent in-house economists, who unlike a stopped clock are right far more frequently than twice a day. GDP growth for 2024 came in below initial forecasts at only +0.6%, but the forecast for this year remains better at +1.8%. The exchange rate for the month was admittedly stronger YoY, due to a weaker dollar amid (bloviating, orange) uncertainty but that was admittedly before Afriforum commenced its pilgrimage of sabotage to the US. CPI came in at +3.2% for January, with the forecast for the year up a bit at +3.9%. Unemployment – and these are only the official numbers – affected a disheartening 8.0 million people, with a further 3.5 million too discouraged to seek work. In the face of this, we remain irrepressibly Mzansi: Consumer confidence breezed in at a buoyant -6 for the fourth quarter of 2024, still in negative territory, to be sure, but the highest level for that anxious three months since 2018. Accordingly, retail trade sales were up +3.1% for December, with growth for 2024 of +2.5%.

Comment: For a more detailed look at these critical numbers and what drives them, you would be hard-pressed to do better than the Trade Intelligence South African Economic Report.