
THIS ISSUE: 28 Feb - 06 Mar
Will the interims and updates never cease? Shoprite, Woolies, SPAR, RCL FOODS, plus some interesting news on the loyalty front from Pick n Pay and Shoprite too. And – you may have noticed – a brand new logo for Trade Intelligence – find out more about it here. Enjoy the read.
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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Shoprite Mr Fantastic
Those interims from Shoprite for the six months through December that you have been waiting for. Turnover was up +9.6% to R128.6bn, which may seem a little lacklustre compared to the first half numbers for 2023 and 2024 (+16.8% and +13.9% respectively), although high internal inflation had a role to play for both periods and HY2024 included the Group’s acquisition of ex-Massmart stores. But back to the current period – trading profit grew a solid +13.5% to R7.3bn and within the business, Checkers led the charge, growing +13.6% with a staggering additional 75,000 daily visits in store and online for the period. While the markets weren’t crazy about the result – the share price declined 6% before recovering – Shoprite itself seems quite chuffed. “This was a fantastic six months,” says CEO Pieter Engelbrecht. “We are happy to say that we didn’t just buy market share, we didn’t give margin away, we managed to increase gross margin.”
Comment: For a more detailed look at the results, see this excellent summary from our analysts.
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Woolworths Food glorious Food
Then some interims from Woolies for the six months through December, with Group turnover up +5.7% to R40.3bn. Woolies Food delivered turnover growth of +11.4%, while Fashion, Beauty and Home grew just +2.5% and Country Road Group (CRG) was down a worrying -8.8%. Operating profit (from core trading activities) came in at - 13.3% but adding in finance costs, investment income and earnings from its joint ventures brings profit before tax to R2.6bn, up +6.3%. The Group’s appraisal of the macro environment where “whilst discretionary spend remains constrained, consumer sentiment is improving, supported by moderating inflation, easing interest rates, and the suspension of load shedding” suggests it believes that better days lie ahead.
Comment: Although Bagattini did state that the leadership team would be looking closely at CRG and its underperforming brands over H2. Perhaps some form of spinoff is on the cards. Take a look at our summary of the results here.
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SPAR A numbers game
And the numbers keep coming, this time in the form of a trading update from SPAR, which has let it be known that things are not looking so grand right now: in the 18 weeks through January, the business recorded a -1.6% drop in wholesale turnover, which it attributed to challenging conditions that saw lower sales due to constrained consumer spending in all regions. SPAR believes, however, that the business has positive momentum, with improving operating margin levels and results from cost controls and promotional activity – although this has been dragged upon by operations in Ireland and Switzerland, which saw turnover decline of -6.7% and -9%, respectively.
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Loyalty Loyalty among schemes
Big news this week from both Shoprite and Pick n Pay vis-à-vis their reward programmes. First up, Shoprite has announced that Standard Bank’s UCount Rewards will become available from Shoprite and Checkers in April. The partnership replaces a similar deal with FNB’s venerable eBucks scheme, which has withdrawn from it effective end March. Standard Bank joins Discovery Vitality which has partnered with Shoprite in its HealthFood benefit since September last year. Speaking of eBucks, FNB has announced that members will all earn as much as 30% of their spend back in eBucks when using Pick n Pay’s asap! on-demand delivery service, and up to 20% back from all items when shopping at Pick n Pay stores, also starting April. “The initial success with rewards on the Pick n Pay spend confirmed that FNB is delivering additional value to customers with the eBucks benefits, and we are delighted to now offer these rewards to all our customers,” says Lytania Johnson, CEO of FNB’s Personal Segment.
Comment: It’s possible that there was some species of brouhaha behind these deals; perhaps we’ll never know. But on the face of it, these seem like solid partnerships in an expanding and evolving loyalty milieu.
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International Retailers Game over
On the 21st of Feb, Kroger’s board received word that the CEO, Rodney McMullen, was up to no good in some as yet unspecified way. A brisk investigation ensued, and just two weeks later McMullen is out on his ear, without so much as the courtesy of the payout of $11.2m worth of unvested stock and options he held and any eligibility for a bonus. Whatever his misdoings, they are apparently “not related to the Company’s financial performance, operations or reporting, and it did not involve any Kroger associates” according to the business; rather they had to do with personal conduct that was inconsistent with company policy. Kroger, you will recall, has just rather acrimoniously blown up a buyout by Albertson’s, and laid off an unspecified number of staff in the bleak month of February. On the upside, during McMullen’s decade at the helm, total sales grew from $98bn to $150bn, and the business acquired rivals Harris Teeter and Roundy’s.
Comment: The pace of the Board investigation is telling. It may be that the exit of McMullen is an outcome not unsought by the business anyway.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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RCL FOODS Taking flight
And more interims, this time from RCL FOODS: revenue from continuing operations for the six months through December up +5.4% to R13.6bn, with HEPS up +38.8%, due largely to gains in groceries and baking, as well as a partial recovery of the additional levy raised by the SA Sugar Association in the 2023 financial year on the sugar business unit. Groceries benefited from a favourable product mix in pet food, improved margins as a result of lower raw material input costs, savings initiatives, production efficiencies and reduced load shedding. The baking business unit delivered an improved performance, despite muted sales volumes across the portfolio, with a focus on continuous improvement and net revenue management initiatives and lower input costs. And after a couple of years of record performance, sugar continued strong, aided by continuous improvements in operational performance and reduced industry exposure to lower-margin raw exports.
Comment: A business which has reinvented itself, diversified, and gone from strength to strength under difficult conditions.
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In Brief Have a break from the break
First to the fields of waving grain. After a savage El Niño summer that cut production 23%, mealies are making a cautious recovery. Production of white maize – a staple for many lower-income households – is forecast to come in 22% higher this year, although the harvest of yellow maize – used primarily for animal feed – is expected to be about 4% lower at around 6.5 million tons. Next, SAB has phased out small cans for some of its alcohol brands as consumers increasingly switch to bigger containers. More drinkers are buying 440ml and 500ml cans as they offer more value at almost the same price as the smaller 330ml ones. Finally, something called “chocolate tablets” (we think those are what we used to call …. chocolates?) are the second most popular chocolate format in the European chocolate market; accordingly, Nestlé will soon be launching a new range of KitKat tablets in three different flavours: double chocolate, hazelnut and salted caramel. The idea, they say, is to create “a multisensory experience through creamy fillings and visually appealing marbled chocolate.”
Comment: We wish them all the best with that. Although if it’s not a slim but substantial vertical strip, is it truly a KitKat?
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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Inflation High price, great pain
Word from the hoary sages over at Stats SA is that the rate of headline consumer price inflation (CPI) rose for the third month from 3% in December to 3.2% in January 2025, the highest in four months, against forecasts of 3.3%. The upside for South Africa’s beleaguered households is that food inflation was down a touch to 2.3% YoY, from 2.5% in December. The bad news, of course, is that Eskom has been granted a tariff increase of more than +12% for the next financial year. And according to the influential Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice & Dignity Group (PMBEJD), the average cost of the Household Food Basket was R5,313.22 – down around 2.2%, from January, but up YoY by +0.7%.
Comment: Tough times for the poorest among us – but when are they not?