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THIS ISSUE: 21 Feb - 27 Feb
A lively week in this great industry we call home, with interims trickling in, and another Unilever CEO goes fishing. Cyril and the rand agree on the budget, Makro’s third-party vendors get slapped with extra fees, and Shoprite edges ever so slightly out of the property game. Enjoy the read.
YOUR NUMBERS THIS WEEK
RETAILERS AND WHOLESALERS
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Dis-Chem A line in the sand
The two halves of the Dis-Chem name will forever be separated by the hyphen’s cruel horizontal slash and that is just something we have learned to accept. More palatable is this trading update for the first four months of the second half: Group revenue up +7.2% with retail revenue increasing by +5.6% (although like-store sales were only up +2.9%) and external wholesale revenue by +18.8%. Dis-Chem now operates 333 retail stores – up six from the end of August – including 286 Dis-Chem Pharmacy stores and 47 Dis-Chem Baby City stores. Of note this round was the growth of franchise pharmacy brand The Local Choice (TLC), up +19.5% although still down a touch from its interim performance. Footprint wise TLC has grown by 30 stores to 230 from last year. Somewhat cheekily, Dis-Chem claims to be the biggest dispensary group in the country, and says that it has grown its market share during the period in question.
Comment: Bullish, or defensive? The like-store sales point to efficiencies and economies of scale yet to be achieved.
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Makro Stand and deliver
A peek under the bonnet of Makro’s online sales platform: as of this week, third-party sellers will have to pay R34 more to sell small items and up to R600 more for larger pieces. This in addition to the R250 monthly fee and 13-15% fulfilment commission Makro already charges merchants. “In line with our standard business practices, our Marketplace team conducts regular benchmarking exercises, and we believe that the pricing changes that have been communicated to sellers remain largely in-line with industry norms.” On the upside, it argued, it would continue to deliver returned items to the merchants in question rather than expecting them to schlep over to the DC and pick them up, as rival Takealot does. Are the merchants mollified you ask? They are not, with some suggesting they’ll be forced to ply their trade elsewhere.
Comment: An interesting dynamic, in which suppliers are able to vote with their feet more freely than they are in bricks and mortar retail.
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Informal Retail A formal invitation
Spaza shops are the lifeblood of South Africa’s townships, providing essential goods and services to millions in areas underserved by formal retail. These small, informal stores offer unmatched accessibility, often operating long hours and selling products in affordable, smaller quantities. They provide flexibility through credit options, negotiable prices and culturally relevant stock, catering to the specific needs of their communities. Most spaza owners take pride in their businesses, ensuring cleanliness and proper storage of goods. Many owners and spaza managers are hardworking entrepreneurs. However, recent government efforts to regulate spaza shops have sparked debate. While the intention to improve food safety through formalising the sector is commendable, the execution has raised questions about its effectiveness and potential unintended consequences. President Cyril Ramaphosa has extended the registration deadline for spaza shops and food handling outlets to 28 February 2025 – still a big ask.
Comment: To understand more about the move and what it portends for spazas and the businesses that supply them – from manufacturers to cash and carries – have a look at this excellent report from Yebo Fresh and Trade Intelligence analyst Tshego Modise.
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In Brief The malls have years
When we started this publication back in the early noughts, there were certain truisms people liked to spout – Pick n Pay is not a retailer, it’s a bank, and Shoprite, similarly, is a property business, that sort of thing. As far as we know, Pick n Pay, like all retailers, still makes some spare change off the 90-day payment cycle, but Shoprite, it seems, is edging out of the property game to focus on its wildly successful retail business. The current portfolio includes vacant land, retail shopping centres, standalone supermarket buildings, distribution centres, and offices. Following Competition Commission approval, the business will shortly be concluding the sale of the 12,000m2 Sitari Village Centre in Somerset West to the FPG Group, which also acquired Shoprite’s Drakenstein Centre in Paarl and the Sandown Retail Crossing shopping centre last year. Moving on, Clicks’ UPD wholesale and distribution business has rolled out the first 42 electric delivery vans with solar-powered refrigeration from start-up Everlectric, beginning its transition to an all-electric electric fleet.
Comment: The agility and scale of the Shoprite Business is a rare combination.
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International Retailers Tip, tap, no
First, to the US. Last year we devoted some column inches to the proposed merger between Albertsons and Kroger in that strife-torn North American country. How did that go? Sorry you asked. In December, Albertsons called off the $25bn deal after a federal judge blocked the transaction between America’s fifth and tenth largest retailers which together own dozens of grocery chains, including Safeway, Vons, Harris Teeter and Fred Meyer. Albertsons has since sued Kroger for breach of contract, alleging Kroger caused the merger to be blocked. To be fair, the deal also hit a wall of resistance from unions, small grocery stores and even from political leaders from both parties, all justifiably wary of corporate consolidation. Across the Pond, Tesco has decided to scrap the very popular Tesco Pay+ option that allows Clubcard loyalty members to pay for their shopping with the app in store while simultaneously collecting points, in favour of the more traditional and clunkier two-step option of scanning the Clubcard after paying.
Comment: In this day of ubiquitous loyalty programmes, this does rather look like an own goal, and liable to annoy the punters.
MANUFACTURERS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS
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Unilever The Resurrection of St Paul
The big news this week is the surprising resignation of Unilever CEO Hein Schumacher after just two years in the job. Schumacher, you will recall, was conscripted at the behest of shareholders who believed that incumbent Paul Polman’s visionary and disciplined sustainability agenda had gone too far. Was this in fact the case? During Polman’s tenure, the Sustainable Living Plan era, punters enjoyed growth in the share price of +125%. During Schumacher’s reign, and the brief interregnum of Alan Jope, a period of six years, growth of +6.8% was achieved. We think Paul Polman has deserved his moment: “With dividend reinvestment the return over the 10 years was 290%, outperforming the competitive set and even more so the broader market,” he notes in a sick Linkedin Comments burn. “More importantly we grew market share and top and bottom line consistently. That’s how you need to run a company. Sustainability is nothing (other than) positioning the company where the world is going and if you want to win you might as well lead.”
Comment: Could we love that man more? Not right now.
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In Brief Judgement Day
The long national nightmare that is the court battle between Colgate-Palmolive SA’s and Bliss Brands is not yet over. In 2019, you will sadly recall, Colgate accused Bliss of imitating the packaging of its Protex brand in Securex soap’s repackaging. The battle has raged before the Advertising Regulatory Board, the Johannesburg High Court, the Supreme Court of Appeal and the Constitutional Court. The worthies of the Jo’burg High Court are currently giving it a think. “In 2018, Bliss changed its packaging, moving it even closer to the Protex packaging; its fortunes changed considerably from that point onwards,” says a visibly miffed Colgate in the court papers. Related, Hellmann’s has taken Epic Foods to task over the latter’s imitation of its iconic mayo branding, in what the Advertising Regulatory Board has called the “most egregious example of imitation” since it started operating some seven years ago. Hellmann’s won. Next, a wee trading update from Tiger Brands in which the Striped One reveals that revenue for the four months through January was +3% higher than in the previous year on the back of both volume and price increases, the former as a result of cost-saving initiatives and affordable product pricing.
Comment: Over to you Nedbank senior research analyst Shaun Chauke: “Many people previously thought Tiger had lost its teeth, but this update shows Tiger still has its teeth.” How we do love a good metaphor.
TRADE ENVIRONMENT
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The Economy The dog ate my budget
Oh, dear, oh dear South Africa. Not a good look. But then again, democracy is a messy thing. Minister Godongwana’s Budget speech, as you know, was postponed due to political differences over the increasing of value-added tax (VAT) by two percentage points, from 15% to 17%, which is quite a big deal for this great industry we call home. Fortunately, both the rand and our President reacted with equanimity, the former pretty much staying put and the latter proposing that this was exactly how things were meant to be decided in a Government of National Unity. In other economic news, our treasury expects 2024 GDP growth to come out at +0.8%, driven by a weak third-quarter performance. Abroad, various economists are yelling their head off about the imminent likelihood of a serious recession.
Comment: Now might be the time to hunker down and plan for tougher times in the consumer space.