Level 1 lockdown beckons

  • Infection rates have slowed in SA, leading to President Ramaphosa’s recent announcement that Level 1 Lockdown will start on the 21st of September. This will give the struggling hospitality industry a much needed boost. Social distancing rules have relaxed but South Africans need to remain careful to prevent the second wave of infections currently occurring in many other countries
  • GDP declined for the fourth consecutive quarter and household final consumption expenditure is down 50% in Q2 according to a recent StatsSA release
  • Google Mobility data indicates that movement patterns are returning to normal, with people spending more time away from home. Parks have picked up to higher than pre-lockdown levels
  • Grocery excl. Liquor & Tobacco growth is at 6.4% in value for the total lockdown period. The week ending 23rd of August saw a significant drop in growth across Food categories as consumers spend shifted to newly unbanned Liquor and Tobacco.

- Most non-edible categories showed decline when Liquor and Tobacco sales reopened, including a declines for  Soaps & Sanitiser for the first time since lockdown began
- Liquor growth remained high for two weeks, and then slowed as consumers moved to restock empty pantries. Wine is the only category showing growth across both LSM groups (same trend seen in previous unbanning). Beers and Fabs are declining vs last year since the 2nd ban lifted
- Both LSM groups stocked up on Tobacco products with sales doubling versus last year in the first week. Sales have since stabilized, with little shift across Cigarette quality grades
- Soup & Stock, Rice and Frozen Meats show particularly high growth in the latest week, ahead of previous levels
- Household Cleaners is driving recent growth in non-edible, and Juice and CSDs are now growing after extended declines throughout most of the lockdown period

  • IRI’s Marketing Mix methodology has been adjusted to identify and isolate the COVID-19 impact on sales, resulting in the most accurate forecast and delivering growth for clients

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