Be ready for anything
- On lockdown day 120, we are in the COVID-19 peak period. As a form of normality sets in, we see the impact of cash-strapped and unemployed consumers in the slowing of Grocery sales. This trend is similar to Grocery trends across other countries.
- Cigarettes remain banned and a recent University of Cape Town (UCT) study revealed that 11% of smokers had quit smoking. 56% of these respondents quit due to price hikes and not as a result of the ban itself Despite the ban, smokers easily locate cigarettes and with the loss of the multinational brands, local manufacturers are gaining share. Once the ban is lifted, there is likely to be a price war and an increase in excise taxes. One thing is certain, the Cigarette industry in SA is in disarray.
- Growth over the total lockdown period has slowed from 7% to 5.6% and as consumers’ continue to struggle, we expect this trend will continue.
- Edible Groceries continues to grow with Snacks, Spreads and Yoghurt seeing renewed boosts as schools returned, for a brief period.
- Soap, Sanitizer and Vitamins remain at the top of consumers lists, however Cleaning products, Wipes and Personal Care are declining.
- Within Beauty, Face Care and Hair Care’s initial strong lockdown growth slowed after salons re-opened, but has remained ahead of pre-lockdown levels. Cosmetics is declining as consumers continue to spend more time at home, however compulsory masks in SA has driven the market towards Eye make up, which now accounts for 22% (up from 18%) of the category, with Lip dropping to 8% from 11%.
- Liquor’s six week respite was not enough to bolster Liquor manufacturers and unknowing shoppers were unprepared for the second Liquor ban. Growth was flat in value at 0.95%. This constrained growth was driven by cash-strapped LSM 1-6 and the lack of social occasions, as well as consumers being caught unawares of the 2nd ban.
- Wine is the only category to show growth among both LSM groups and gained share at the expense of Beer.
– This is mainly driven by inflation on Beer after several years of flat/low inflation.
– Box Wine had low/no inflation, whereas Bottled Wine prices increased by well over 10%, driving the value growth amongst LSM 7-10.
– Large packs were popular during this period.
- The alcohol ban had a positive impact on Non-Alcoholic Beverages (NAB). Already a growing category as consumers became more mindful of their alcohol consumption, NAB have grown 17% YTD vs LY, with a direct switch from alcoholic beverages is evident.
- As we settle into this new normal, retailers and manufacturers need to change their approach to loyalty. Given the challenges of the industry, is loyalty even a reasonable expectation? See our summary on the latest IRI UK Whitepaper and to learn more, visit our website for the full report.
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