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Big news from Pick n Pay this week: Richard Brasher, who has helmed the business through seven turbulent years, is handing over to Netherlands-born Pieter Boone. Big shoes, too: under Brasher’s tenure, revenue grew from R50bn to R90bn, while the share price grew +9.84% – modest by SPAR standards (see below), but in the same time competitors Woolies, Massmart and Shoprite saw double-digit declines. So, what of the new guy? Mijnheer Boone comes to us from German discounter Metro, most recently as COO, and having spent time as CEO of wholesale division Metro Cash & Carry. He joined the business in 2011, after it bought out a retailer where he had been working. He is no stranger to tricky geographies, having run Metro’s Russian retail outfit for a spell, with mixed results, and a gig in India expanding Metro’s wholesale operations.

Comment: An interesting pick: does it speak to ambitions at Pick n Pay to grow the already successful Boxer Superstores division?

Clicks and Dis-Chem are doing their bit during the COVID crisis, of course by keeping us supplied with the necessary equipment like masks and oximeters, but now also by offering their services for the rollout of the eventual vaccine. Together, the two chains have a combined 45% dispensary market share, with 750+ dispensaries, and a broad national footprint, so this is a significant offer. For its part, Dis-Chem is hoping to offer a drive-through service where contact will be limited and convenience maximised. Its drive-through testing in the big metros has already proved both popular and successful. The big caveat is, of course, the availability of vaccines: while President Ramaphosa has targeted 40 million doses by the end of the year to achieve herd immunity, it’s not sure when these will reach our shores.

Comment: The success of the programme – and indeed of our country – hinges on collaboration between government and the private sector.

If you’d invested a bob or two in SPAR seven years ago, you’d have a bob or two more today. Back then, the business reported revenue of R47.8bn and operating profit of R1.6bn for the year through September 2013, with a market capitalisation of R20.9bn, and for happy punters, headline earnings of 694.8c per share. Fast forward, etc, and what you have is a very different story: turnover up threefold to R124.3bn, operating profit more than doubling to R3.4bn with HEPS at 1,135.3c, a market cap of R36.5bn and a share price gain over the period of 68.41%. On the downside, the balance sheet (having once been relatively free of red ink) now reflects R6.9bn in long-term debt, resulting in part – back to the upside – from SPAR’s ambitious but canny European acquisitions, which have hedged the business against challenging conditions back home and fluctuations in the dear old ZAR.

Comment: A bold strategic vision, that retailer! While the margins may currently be down slightly, they should improve once the acquisitions are bedded down.

German discounter Aldi has announced that it will be opening another 40 stores across Spain, adding to the 23 opened in 2020. It employs 5,200 staff on that proud peninsula, with 350,000m² of floor space. In the UK, according to our friends at Kantar Retail, rival Lidl is closing the gap: even as Aldi loses 0.5 percentage points of market share, with a grand total now of 7.4%, Lidl has cemented its position as the blighted archipelago’s cheapest retailer, across a trolley of 40 products. And big kahuna Tesco had an absolutely storming Christmas, with like-store sales up +8.1% in the six weeks to January 9, driven by online shopping and the desire of punters to consume vast quantities of food while staying at home this year. Over in the (ahem) United States of America, Walmart has announced a partnership with investment firm Ribbit Capital which will see The Big Feller offering a basket of “modern, innovative and affordable financial solutions” to the huddled masses.

Comment: They could learn a thing or two from our very own Shoprite and Pick n Pay, which have been doing the same thing for some years now.

Last year – follow us closely here – agribusiness Zeder Investments sold its 30% shareholding in Quantum Foods to rival Country Bird Holdings (CBH), who seemed poised to snap up the rest of the business for good measure. Until, enter international agribusiness investor, Silverstreet, which bought a similar-sized stake in Quantum as CBH had, setting the scene for some sort of thrilling shareholder impasse. Not so fast there: spotting an opportunity – or perhaps determined not to be left out in the cold, or both – Astral Foods, which had eyed CBH’s activities with alarm, bought its own 10% stake in Quantum. Word on the street now is that Astral and Silverstreet might work together with senior management in a loose shareholder alliance that would see the influence of CBH gravely reduced. Quantum, in the meantime, is just quietly getting on with the business of business, building capacity and production efficiencies, and making its own acquisitions, notably of L P Buhr Boerdery, the owner of the Helderfontein broiler farm, for R53m.

Comment: Say what you like about poultry, it’s a sector which doesn’t shy away from drama.

Food and beverage giant PepsiCo is aiming for net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across its value chain by 2040. “Climate action is core to our business as a global food and beverage leader and propels our PepsiCo Positive journey to deliver positive outcomes for the planet and people,” says chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta. “Our goal will guide us on the steep but critical path forward – there is simply no other option but immediate and aggressive action.” The plan is centred around both mitigation, reducing GHG emissions to decarbonise its operations and supply chain, and resilience, reducing vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change by continuing to incorporate climate risk into business continuity plans. Specifically, it will continue its drive to reduce virgin plastic use and increase recycled content in its packaging.

Comment: Commendable stuff from a major global player. Every other similar business should immediately follow suit.

Let’s indulge in a bit of healthy speculation, shall we? Then when we have the actual results at our fingertips, we can see how we did. Or rather, how the economists, who have never in the 250-year history of the profession faced consequences for their predictions, did. First up: CPI, which nine economists polled by Bloomberg will come in at 3.1% YoY for the month of December, down from 3.2% the previous month. Not unrelated: the prime lending rate, which the dear old SARB is expected to keep steady at 3.5% in the absence of anything resembling a recovery with its associated rise in inflation. Then retail trade sales, the last word on how Black Friday went, and predicted by, again, economists, to decline by -2.6% YoY for November.

Comment: Not a great outlook. But we may be surprised on the upside by a couple of these. One can simply never tell.