2020 – The Year of the Pandemic

• Second and third waves continue to gain traction across Europe and US. SA will remain in Level 1, with additional freedom regarding alcohol sales and international travel, but are asked to practice constant vigilance.
• The festive season is only a few weeks away. IRI International has released predictions for the festive season and recommendations for how retailers and manufacturers can capitalize on the ‘strictly family affair’ occasion this year.
• Google mobility data shows that time spent at workplaces is almost at pre-pandemic levels. Transit stations, Parks and Retail& Recreation spaces, all remain down significantly.
• Grocery excl. Liquor & Tobacco value growth is at almost 7% for formal retail, across the total lockdown period.

– Pantry staples such as Wheat Flour, Dry Pasta, Frozen Meat and Rice dominate growth as life returns to normal. Previously high month-end growth on Indulgence categories (Baking Aids, Biscuits) has slowed, suggesting that shoppers are treating themselves differently.
– Soaps & Sanitizer and Wipes maintain strong growth. Beverages are performing ahead of initial lockdown trends.
– Total Liquor is showing flat performance for the last 12 weeks vs LY, up from the overall declines seen previously. The trend should continue as weekend sales reopen. Lower inflation in Box Wine is taking share from higher inflation, Beer.
– Tobacco is still showing declines vs LY in both upper and lower LSM groups.
– Total Medicinal is growing in the lockdown period to date, driven by Vitamins, First Aid and Analgesics as shoppers continue to seek preventative products.
– Performance across many channels has returned to pre-pandemic levels. Online retains its newly-gained share and PFM performance remains behind.

• IRI’s Marketing Mix methodology has been adjusted to identify and isolate the COVID-19 impact on sales, resulting in an accurate forecast and delivering growth for clients.

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