Lockdown had a positive impact on Grocery sales but will this last?
- Current lockdown consumption trends continue into the latest week. From 1 June SA will move to lockdown level 3 which allows for liquor sales
– Sanitisers and Soap remain a consistent priority
– Consumers are still indulging in savoury and sweet snacks
– Growth of baking-related categories continues
– Frozen food categories, fruit and baking ingredients rank high in growth in all LSM groups
– Consumers are spending more time in the garden and purchasing products to increase
comfort at home
– Hair and beauty appliances are growing as consumers seek alternative solutions in the
absence of salons. Searches for hair maintenance continue to increase, especially amongst ethnic hair consumers
- IRI observed ~7% grocery growth over the eight week lockdown period to date, however SA consumers anticipate lower spending in all categories except grocery and in-home entertainment
- Cigarettes and tobacco remain an ongoing source of contention and are still under restriction with bans reportedly only being lifted on lockdown level 2
- Traditional sales forecasting models need to be adapted and updated regularly to take into account the COVID-19 effect and the changing consumption patterns, accurately. IRI has developed a Machine Learning based algorithm that re-evaluates the assessment of each factor and enables more accurate estimations of probable changes in COVID-19 wear-out effect on sales patterns, and the potential effect of a second wave
- The next update will be on Friday 12 June 2020 which will include a report on the first week of liquor sales
